Counterpoint: Here's Why The Warriors-Sixer Will Go 'Over'

Saturday, March 2, 2019 4:25 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 2, 2019 4:25 PM UTC

The 76ers are coming off a two-game losing streak but these allowed to have several players well rested for this game. Check why Warriors at 76ers will go "over".

Golden State Warriors at the Philadelphia 76ersSaturday, March 2, 2019, 8:00 PM ESTGolden State favored by 5-points with a 236.5-point totalBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3569932, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,92,238,169], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

The opening line is presuming that 76er Center Joel Embiid will not be playing in this game. The 76ers are coming off two straight road wins over the New Orleans Pelicans and the Oklahoma City Thunder with the latter being a very impressive win. Ben Simmons had another triple-double and have the 76ers a 3-1 record in games without Embiid. In the beginning of the season Embidd missed four games and the 76ers squad went just 1-3 without him in the lineup. So, the additions of Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, Marjanoic, and Mike Scott before the February trade deadline has been the difference and has significantly improved the team chemistry. The 76ers are getting better each and learning to adjust well having five new players in their 10-man rotation.

The 76ers had lost 10 straight games comprised of five straight years of losing the home and away two-game series to the Warriors. The Warriors are coming into the Wells Fargo Center off a two-game losing streak but these losses allowed head coach Kerr to have several key players well rested for this game. Joel Embiid has had the most rest and his status for this game is completely up in the air so be sure to stay on top of his game status.

I am on the 76ers getting the 5 points and the ‘OVER’. I would also recommend a reverse action parlay using the 76ers on the money line and the ‘OVER’. If Embiid does play, the line will come down to 2-points or lower. I would bot be surprised to see it at pick-em is he starts given the magnitude of the game and that is a nationally televised prime-time game.

Let’s run through a few database situational queries that support the 76ers. This datanbase situational query has earned a 48-16 record using the money line spanning the last five seasons and instructs us to play against road teams using the money line that are off an upset loss as a road favorite and has won between 60% to 75% of their games in the current season and now playing a team with a winning record.

From the machine learning side of this game, the key pivotable projection is that the 76ers will score a minimum of 112 points. Warriors are 4-22 ATS when they allow 112 or more points in a game this season. The 76ers are an outstanding 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) when they score 112 or more points in a game this season. Warriors are 4-15 ATS when allowing 117 or more points this season. The 76ers are 20-8 ATS when they have scored 117 or more points this season.

The 76ers are an impressive 17-4 straight up (SU) winning the games by an average of 11.9 points when scoring over 112 points and committing 10 to 13 turnovers in home games since 2016. The Warriors are a horrid 3-19 ATS failing to cover the spread by an average of 7.7 points when allowing 112 or more points and forcing 10 to 13 turnovers in road games since 2016. The ‘OVER’ is a perfect 21-0-1 covering the total by an average of 14.6 points.

Place a wager on the 76ers plus the 5-points, the ‘OVER’ at 236.5 points, and the revers action parlay using the 76ers on the money line and the ‘OVER’

comment here