Going ‘under’ the NBA Odds North of the Border

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, November 7, 2014 5:51 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

 

There could be somewhat of a defensive struggle Friday night in a matchup of 4-1 teams north of the border when the Washington Wizards (4-1, 2-1 away) make the trip north to pay a visit to the Toronto Raptors (4-1, 0-1 home) at Air Canada Centre in Toronto, ON Canada at 7:35 ET in a game available on Comcast - DC.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 194½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -102.


Winner Has a Least a Share of East’s Best Record
Believe it or not there are already no undefeated NBA pick teams left in the Eastern Conference at this early stage of the season, and these are two of the three remaining 4-1 teams along with the Chicago Bulls, so the winner of this game will be assured of at least a share of the best record in the East at the end of the night.

The Raptors are looking to defend their Atlantic Division title from last season when they set a new franchise record with 48 wins, and so far, so good as they lead the second place Brooklyn Nets by 1½ games in the early going. The Wizards meanwhile are thankful that LeBron James is no longer with the Heat, as his departure could pave the way to for Washington to win the Southeast Division, where the Wizards currently lead Miami by one game.


Seven-Game Home Stand for Toronto
Speaking of the Heat, that was the only team to beat the Raptors so far this season in Miami, as Toronto is currently 2-0 here at home most recently beating the Oklahoma City Thunder in Air Canada 100-88 on Tuesday. After a road win in Boston, the Raptors now get a chance to get a jump start and build up a bit of an early cushion in the division, as this game kicks off a seven-game home stand that happens to be the longest home stand in Toronto history.

Sure Toronto can score, ranking fourth in the NBA with 105.8 points per game, but a lot of that has to do with playing at a quick tempo as the Raptors have not really shot the ball particularly well at 43.1 percent including a dismal 28.2 percent from beyond the three-point arc. On top of that they are not a particularly good rebounding team ranking 29th in the league with just 37.8 boards per game.

However, the Toronto defense has actually played better than the 99.8 points per game it is allowing due to the many possessions Raptors’ games generally have due to their pace.


Wizards Good Defense Since Opener
Speaking of defense, the Wizards are a respectable 11th in the NBA in points against at 95.8 and 10th in field goal percentage allowed at 43.3 percent, and they have actually been much better than that since losing their opening game at Miami 107-95, thus meaning the Heat handed each of these teams its only loss, as Miami shot 48.1 percent that evening.

Washington has won four straight games since then though while allowing 93.0 points per game, and the Wizards have been especially stingy the last two games, first holding the New York Knicks to 83 points on 37.0 percent shooting on the road and then holding the Indiana Pacers to 84 points during regulation time in a 96-94 overtime win at home where the Pacers shot only 38.9 percent for the game.


An ‘under’ Head-to-Head Series
Finally the ‘under has prevailed for the most part when these teams have gotten together going 7-2 in the last nine meetings, and one of the ‘overs’ required triple overtime the last time these clubs met in February. The previous eight meetings had averaged just a combined 185.6 points, which would be safely below this posted total.

Thus, look for these teams to stay ‘under’ and top out at only around 190 points or so in Toronto on Friday.

NBA Pick: Wizards, Raptors ‘under’ 194½ (-102)