Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.
Expect a higher scoring game than the recent form of the two participants may indicate Tuesday night in a matchup of New York rivals when the Brooklyn Nets (6-9, 3-5 away) make the short trip to visit to the New York Knicks (4-14, 3-6 home) at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY at 7:35 ET in a game available on MSG.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 193 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at +100.
Both Teams Trending ‘under’ But…
The ‘over’ is not the first thing that comes to mind here when looking at the recent performances of these two teams. The Nets have now gone ‘under’ in four straight games and they were held to 37.2 percent shooting in a 102-84 home loss to the Chicago Bulls in Brooklyn on Sunday. The Nets are still in second place in the Atlantic Division, but that is by default at just 6-9 and six games behind the Toronto Raptors.
The Knicks meanwhile are probably glad to see November come to an end as they are currently on a seven-game losing streak after going 3-13 during the that month, with the ‘under’ being the winning NBA pick in four of their last five games following an ugly 86-79 home loss to the Miami Heat Sunday. New York is in fourth place in the Atlantic at 4-14 and has only the winless Philadelphia 76ers to thank for not being in the division basement.
…Bring Out Best in Offenses vs. Each Other
So why do we support the ‘over’ here? Well for starters, these teams went ‘over’ very easily the first time they met this season on November 7th in Brooklyn with the Nets winning 110-99. Those 110 points remain the second most the Nets have scored during regulation time in any game this season, while the Knicks have only reached 100 points in regulation three times this year, making those 99 points their fourth largest output.
And that was not the first time this city rivalry brought out the better of these two offenses as the five head-to-head meetings between the clubs since the beginning of last season are averaging a combined total of 197.2 points, which is more than four points higher than this posted total. And remember, it was not as if these clubs were ‘over’ machines last season either.
Bad Defense Helps the ‘over’ Too
Of course one reason why these offenses look better when these teams meet is because both teams have issues defensively. The Nets expected to be fine defensively entering this season but that has not been the case as Brooklyn is 20th in the NBA in points against at 100.4 per game and 17th in field goal percentage allowed. Furthermore that is while playing a slow tempo with the Nets ranking 20th in the league in pace rating.
Imagine how many points per game the Nets would be allowing if they played at a bit of a quicker pace!
The Knicks are allowing 99.2 points per game and they have been very vulnerable beyond the three-point arc, surrendering an ungodly 39.2 percent success rate on three-point attempts. Even this Nets’ team that does not shoot three-pointers particularly well at 33.4 percent was able to go 14-for-24 for an outrageous 58.3 percent from beyond the arc in the first meeting in Brooklyn.
Second Game Back for Carmelo
Also the Knicks welcomed back Carmelo Anthony vs. the Heat after he missed the previous two games with back spasms, and he promptly poured in 31 points vs. the Miami defense. On the Nets’ side, Joe Johnson figures to bounce back strong tonight after the stiff Bulls’ defense held him to a season-low three points. Johnson scored 18 points vs. the Knicks the first go-around.
Now that each team is not facing as good a defense as each did on Sunday, look for yet another relatively high-scoring game in this series when the Brooklyn Nets take the subway into Manhattan to take on the Knicks at the “World’s most famous arena” on Tuesday.
NBA Pick: Nets, Knicks ‘over’ 193 (+100)