Going Against Public Makes Sense by Picking Pacers, Wizards

Thursday, April 5, 2018 12:57 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 5, 2018 12:57 PM UTC

A healthier Golden State squad tries to get revenge at Indiana, while Washington visits surging Cleveland. Is there value in backing the underdogs with your NBA picks?

NBA Thursday: Top Underdog PlaysWarriors vs. PacersFree NBA Pick: Pacers plus MLBest Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Just last week Indiana thumped Golden State on the road, beating a skeleton Warriors crew. They won’t have the same luxury tonight. Golden State is starting to get healthy, and the Warriors are -1.5 favorites on the NBA odds board. Despite the fact they are coming in at almost full strength, with my NBA picks I will gladly take Indiana plus a small number to possibly pull the upset. I still don’t believe Golden State is quite right without Steph Curry, and Indiana has been playing some really good basketball the past couple of weeks, winning five of their last six and possessing strong enough home statistics to hang in this game. On the season, Indiana is shooting an extremely good 47.8 percent overall and 37.2 percent from distance at home. Although their defensive statistics for the most part are not fantastic, they do defend well where the Warriors do the most damage, as they allow opponents to shoot just 34.8 percent from beyond the arc, which ranks sixth in the NBA. For me, this is more of a numbers play were oddsmakers have set a line that’s very enticing to take Golden State, but I like Indiana to pull the upset in what should be a high-scoring affair.

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Wizards vs. CavaliersFree NBA Pick: Wizards +5.5Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Cleveland has been playing outstanding basketball recently and is a solid -5.5 favorite in this spot on the NBA odds board. This line really screams to back the Cavaliers, but in my NBA picks I will take the live underdog in Washington plus the points. This is strictly a line play for me as this number seems a little bit too low, with Washington losing six of their last eight games and their last two on the road by double digits to Chicago and Houston. In the three Washington-Cleveland matchups this season, all games have been within single digits. However, with the way Cleveland has been playing, the number doesn’t makes sense, so you can consider this an opposite play. I would imagine this is a good spot for the Wizards to pick things up again and they have the statistics to come in and take this game to the wire. They shoot 37.4 percent overall and allow opponents to shoot just 34.6 percent from distance, both of which rank fourth in the NBA. This should be the point of contention, but ultimately this will be an “against the public” play.

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