Go With Over When Wizards Host Pseudo-Celtics

Go With Over When Wizards Host Pseudo-Celtics

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Apr. 8:
25-26-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 33-20 Totals

Boston (48-33 SU, 38-42-1 ATS) at Washington (32-49 SU, 38-43 ATS)

Sunday, 7:00 p.m. ET, TNT

Free NBA Pick: Over

Best Line Offered: BetOnline

Maybe TNT should have some kind of “flex’ package with the NBA. Tuesday’s game between the Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards has nothing on the line but pride; the Celtics are going to finish fourth in the Eastern Conference, and the Wizards are going straight to the golf course after this one. It might be a good spot to put Washington in your NBA picks – they will be playing at home, and the Celtics have some injury concerns heading into the playoffs.

It might be. Unfortunately, those injuries have the NBA odds for Tuesday’s matchup on hold as we go to press, so we’d rather recommend the ‘over’ here at the ranch. That’s where the profit margin is more likely to show up, and this contest will probably feature all the defensive hustle you’d expect at an All-Star Game – but without the All-Stars.

Nuthin’ But A G-League Thang

We mean that literally. Kyrie Irving (plus-6.0 OBPM, plus-0.3 DBPM) and Al Horford (plus-2.1 OBPM, plus-2.7 DBPM) are being held out of Tuesday’s game for load management. But that’s not all: Marcus Smart (plus-0.6 OBPM, plus-1.2 DBPM) suffered a left oblique contusion during Sunday’s 116-108 loss to the Orlando Magic (Over 217) and has also been ruled out for Tuesday. That means we’re going to see a lot of Terry Rozier (minus-1.1 OBPM, plus-0.3 DBPM) in this matchup.

Here are four more players Boston won’t be using on Tuesday:

  • Jayson Tatum (minus-1.3 OBPM, plus-0.5 DBPM)
  • Marcus Morris (minus-0.4 OBPM, minus-1.0 DBPM)
  • Gordon Hayward (plus-0.1 OBPM, plus-0.4 DBPM)
  • Aron Baynes (minus-1.2 OBPM, plus-1.4 DBPM)

Also, Daniel Theis (plus-0.8 OBPM, plus-1.5 DBPM) is questionable with a sore right foot. Which leaves us with something closer to the Maine Red Claws than the Boston Celtics. The Wizards should wipe the floor with them on Tuesday, but the market could certainly over-correct and give Boston too many points, so we’d rather work with whatever total shows up on the board.

Beal Toss

We’re guessing it comes out too low. The Wiz already have the ‘over’ at 49-32 on the season, and 25-15 at home; they haven’t played much defense all year, and losing John Wall (plus-1.1 OBPM, minus-1.3 DBPM) for the season wasn’t as big a disaster as it may have appeared back in late December.

The important thing is that Bradley Beal (plus-3.8 OBPM, minus-1.1 DBPM) is still healthy, and he’s exactly the kind of one-way player we can rely on to get max value out of the ‘over.’ And check this out: Jabari Parker (minus-0.8 OBPM, plus-0.1 DBPM) won’t be playing Tuesday, nor will Trevor Ariza (plus-0.6 OPBM, minus-0.8 DBPM). Must-see television, my friends. Enjoy the game, and may the sphere be with you.

Talk Basketball at SBR’s NBA Betting Forum