Go 'Over' With Your NBA Picks When Suns Visit League Leading Warriors

Charles Stark

Thursday, April 2, 2015 12:07 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 2, 2015 12:07 PM UTC

The pace should quicken for today’s Thursday battle between the Warriors and the Suns.  I am taking the over the total in this match up and I am suggesting you add this to your NBA picks.  Read more and take the over with confidence.

Closer Look at the Number
NBA odds makers have come out with a total of 209.5, and although I usually side with the sports books on the number and say it makes sense… this does not make sense.  In the three games they have played this year the Warriors and the Suns have been well under this number.  From their first meeting until their last the totals have gone 202, 193, and 178.  Perhaps the books are leaning on the fact that these teams both like to push pace and on face value it would seem they would be in a high scoring affair.  In this instance and with recent play I think this game is going to be a track meet.


Pick Up the Pace
On the year Golden State and Phoenix are ranked second and sixth respectively in shots attempted per game at 86.7 and 86.2.  The Warriors are ranked number one in the league in shots made at 41.4 per game while the Suns are ranked fourth at 39.1 on the year.  Both these teams like to get up and down the floor and they have the stats to back them up.  Both teams are also ranked in the top ten in three pointers attempted per game and in three pointers made per game.  Defensively is the difference whereas the Warriors actually play some compared to the Suns.  On the year Golden State is ranked first in opponent field goal percentage at 42.4% per game, Phoenix is ranked in the bottom half of the league at 45%.  In opponent three point shooting we find about the same disparity with the Warriors ranked towards the top of the league at 33.7% and the Suns at the bottom at 35.5% per game average. 

Check out this capper's take on tonight's Suns vs. Warriors game

The shooting simply has not been there for the Suns this past week.  In the last three games they are only shooting around 42% from the field and 24% beyond the arc.  With these numbers, once again, the line set at 209.5 seems a bit high being that Phoenix can’t seem to hit the broad side of a barn.  Even with teams that like to push tempo playing Portland twice and OKC the Suns have only managed to score 81, 97, and 86 respectively.  This gets my radar up big time, in the last ten games the Suns have only gone over 209 once.  It leads to the fact that this number is based on Golden State’s ability to run up and down and light the scoreboard up.  Seems to me that this is exactly what is going to happen tonight.  Golden State has been scoring at a torrid pace on the year at 109 per game and in the last three they have not slowed down staying at a 108 average.

Although it seems Knight will be out, and this number seems a bit a high, based on the pace of these two teams for the year and recent play this number is set at about the right spot.  I don’t anticipate these teams to hold much back though and I think they are going to come out firing at the same pace that they have been consistent with.  I think we should see more basketballs dropping in the net.  My play here is on the over and I suggest you add it as well to your NBA picks.

NBA Pick: Suns/Warriors OVER 210 at BetOnline 

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