Go 'Over' With Your NBA Picks in Bulls vs. Heat Up Tempo & Powerful Offense Clash

Charles Stark

Thursday, April 9, 2015 11:52 AM GMT

Thursday, Apr. 9, 2015 11:52 AM GMT

I am going to take the road probably less traveled and take the over when the Chicago Bulls visit the Miami Heat.  Read more here and the over the total to your NBA picks today.

I’m sorry, the Line is What?
NBA odds makers have all the information in the world so I am assuming they have all the intangibles as well.  They came out with the total for this game at 191.  While at first glance that looks about like the right line I have to pause for a second when I see the two previous games these two matched up… those totals, 168 and 180.  So are Goran Dragic and Derek Rose worth the extra points?  This line just leaves me scratching my head.  Here we have two solid defensive teams that have held each other at times to less than 40% shooting for a game and two teams that played to really low totals, and now the line is over 190 points?  Ok fine I will bite, this line looks so off to me I have to take the over and I suggest you do as well.  This game means a lot to Miami, I expect them to push some tempo in this spot to help get them the possible win, but more importantly this should help get the over (more on that in a bit).

 

Recently
Offensively there is not a lot to give me a reason to make this play on the over, in the last three games Miami has shot over 47% from the floor but Chicago has only shot 42% in that same time span.  From beyond the arc the last three games we flip the script and it is Chicago that has shot well at over 38% but Miami is the worst in the league in that time frame at 18% (not a typo).  Ok, so not a ton to go on here.  Scoring wise the Bulls are averaging 95 points a game their last three (five points below their league average) while the Heat are averaging 97 points in that time frame (two points above their average).  Defensively both teams are playing pretty well (which also makes me wonder on this total) with the Bulls allowing 43.9% from the field and the Heat allowing 45% in the last three games.  The big disparity, and now things might start coming into light is defending beyond the arc, simply put, neither team is doing it well.  In the last three games Miami is allowing opponents almost 42% from distance (third worst in the league), while the Bulls are allowing 38% in that same time frame (eighth worse).  Neither team is great shooting the ball behind the arc, but if these numbers hold up we could see a lot of three’s go in, both teams rank in about the middle of the league in three pointers attempted.

Want a second opinion? Check out what this capper has to say!

Balance and the Pace
The more numbers I pull up the more of this yin and yang we continue to see from these teams.  Where one team is weak, the other is strong. Chicago has been moving the ball well in the last three games averaging about three more assists per contest than their league average, the Heat have averaged two less assists than their average in this same time span.  Miami is pushing pace or playing more up tempo shooting the ball 80 times per game compared to their 76.8 average, so of course Chicago must be opposite, and they are, averaging 80 shots in that same time span compared to their 82.7 average.

Finally the line again, at 191 this just seems off.  With all the stats contrary off each other in several different categories I anticipate a game where each team plays to their strengths on the offensive end and we get a pretty good and surprising up tempo game.  I am taking the over here with my NBA picks and I suggest you side with the NBA odds makers on this one.

NBA Pick:  Miami/Chicago over 191 at BetOnline

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