Gluttons for Punishment: Fade Knicks ML Versus Spurs

Saturday, February 23, 2019 6:21 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 23, 2019 6:21 PM UTC

The New York Knicks have won just one of their last 20 games. Sunday’s NBA pick is easy to make with the San Antonio Spurs in town.

<p style="text-align:right"><em>J<strong>ason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Feb. 22:</strong><br />12-12 ATS, 0-2 ML (minus-4.35 units), 17-7 Totals</em></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/san-antonio-spurs-vs-new-york-knicks-3569803/odds/" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">San Antonio (33-27 SU, 32-27-1 ATS) at New York (11-48 SU, 24-31-1 ATS)</a><br />Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA-TV<br />Free NBA Pick: Spurs ML<br />Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4423&amp;book=BetOnline" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Sportsbook!">BetOnline</a></strong></p><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3569803, "sportsbooksIds":[238,93,1096,19,999996], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on you again. The New York Knicks <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/tanks-ahoy-take-the-home-team-for-knicks-hawks/88783/">did us dirty</a> heading into the All-Star break, actually beating the Atlanta Hawks 106-91; we had the Hawks as –320 home faves on the moneyline. That’s the only game the Knicks have won since January 4. Sheesh.<br /><br />We’re stubborn here at the home office. The San Antonio Spurs will be at the Garden this Sunday, and if you’re going to put this game in your <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/" target="_blank" title="More NBA Picks">NBA picks</a>, there’s only one option (among the standard straight bets) that makes sense: Spurs on the ML. That Hawks game didn’t work out, but as they say, past performance does not guarantee future results. Let’s do this.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Not-Lanta</strong></h2><p>Here’s a very important difference between the Spurs and Hawks: San Antonio are trying to make the playoffs. They’re seventh in the Western Conference at press time, two games up on the ninth-place Sacramento Kings in a very tight race for the last five playoff spots. They won’t be tanking Sunday’s game.<br /><br />They might not cover, either. The Spurs are in a slump right now at 4-5 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. DeMar DeRozan (minus-0.1 BPM) has been delivering mixed results since the season started; his raw plus/minus has fallen from plus-5.4 in December to minus-2.6 in January and minus-5.7 in February. LaMarcus Aldridge (plus-1.2 BPM) has also seen his performance tail off the past couple of months. They’ve still managed to beat teams like Phoenix, New Orleans and Memphis, but only straight-up, not ATS.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"pt\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;The &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/spurs?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@spurs&lt;/a&gt; share some Rodeo Road Trip essentials.&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoSpursGo?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#GoSpursGo&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/Kfzg7Wggol\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/Kfzg7Wggol&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— FOX Sports Southwest (@FOXSportsSW) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/FOXSportsSW/status/1092626207970025473?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;5 de fevereiro de 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><h2><strong>Eight Seconds Or More</strong></h2><p>The Knicks belong in that group. Even if the draft lottery system has been flattened somewhat, they still have all the incentive to keep losing basketball games. Playing at home doesn’t seem to help New York beat the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/" target="_blank" title="Live NBA Odds Board">NBA odds</a> – they’re 9-19 ATS at the Garden. But the Spurs are slumping, and they’re on their annual rodeo trip, so we’re going to avoid whatever spread pops up at the open.</p><p>The total is where the money’s at these days, but again, we have a dilemma: The ‘over’ is 22-8-1 for the Spurs when they’re on the road, while the ‘under’ is 17-11 for the Knicks at home. So let’s just stick with the moneyline in this one. Make it a small bet, of course; when we compile the handicapping records you see above, we always assume a bet of one unit for each pick, but that’s not what you should actually be doing at home. Bet big with a big edge, small with a small edge, and as always, may the sphere be with you.</p>
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