Game 5 Upset Alert: Pick Nets +350 & +9 as Valuable Road Dog Over Hawks

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, April 29, 2015 12:41 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 29, 2015 12:41 PM UTC

The Nets remarkably tie the series with the Hawks. Now they return to Atlanta for game 5, where they'll attempt to make it three wins in a row against the NBA odds. Can they pull off the feat?

Brooklyn Nets Punching Above Their Weight Class
After winning both home games, the Brooklyn Nets (2-2, 0-2 away) are all level with the Eastern Conference top seed Atlanta Hawks and they head back to Philips Arena buoyed by their two-game winning streak. They'll look to take game 5 and make it three wins in a row tonight, but the odds are stacked against them on the NBA odds board.

The Nets are matched as the massive +350 underdogs to win straight up and the huge 9-point underdogs against the spread. This market evaluations has all to do with their regular season output and perceived weight class as the eighth seed in the NBA playoffs. The Nets finished the season with a subpar 38-44 SU record, which included a 19-22 record both at home and on the road.

Yet, here they are going toe-to-toe with the Eastern Conference standard Atlanta Hawks. Talk about the regular season and postseason being mutually exclusive. They are 2-2 SU in this series and 4-0 ATS.

In game 4, the Nets ramped it up in fine style to overcome the Hawks in overtime 120-115, coming through as the significant +190 home underdogs and covering the closing 5.5-point spread (up from 4.5-points at early doors). Brook Lopez has been key to their success, playing solid on both sides of the ball in this series. While Deron Williams had a monster game 4, leading the Nets with 35 points and seven assists, all while shooting 13-for-25 from the field and 7-for-11 from deep.

Few NBA bettors would have banked on the Nets being competitive at all. Certainly, bookies weren't giving them much of chance, pricing them as the significant series underdogs at +800 NBA odds to the Hawks' -1300 NBA odds to win the series. With the series finely poised on a 2-2 draw, the Nets are priced at +475 to win the series while the Hawks are trading at -650 NBA odds.


Atlanta Hawks Have Home Edge
With the series heading back to Philips Arena for game 5, the balance on the NBA odds board tips in favour of the Hawks. They are matched as the whopping -450 favourites to win outright and as the 9-point home chalk.

Obviously, the Atlanta Hawks haven't played up to their lofty standards in the NBA playoffs. What was supposed to be a clean sweep of the Nets has surprisingly turned into a competitive series. More competitive than most NBA experts and bettors alike predicted. That said the Hawks did the job at home in the opening games, even if they weren't so convincing in the narrow 99-92 win and subsequent 96-91 win, and that counts for something. At the very least, it justifies their NBA odds for game 5, over and above their regular season output.

Still, they can't underestimate the Nets in game 5. Momentum right now is with the visitors and they have the renewed belief that they can compete against the Hawks well.  This series is certainly heating up on the NBA betting floor.


NBA Betting Verdict
Common wisdom points towards the hosts as the solid NBA pick tonight. After all, the Hawks have home advantage, where they are tough to beat; and they haven't yet lost at home in this series. Still, if there's one thing this series has proven it's that nothing can be taken for granted.

Everybody loves a Cinderella story and there's just something about this Cinderella that appeals on an emotional level. One has to tip his/her hat off to them for making this a much better series than initially expected and giving the Hawks a series run for their money.  

First and foremost, therefore, the Nets appeal to our NBA picks as the 9-point underdogs. They've yet to lose a game in this series by such a hefty margin, never mind they've covered all four games and take a 4-0 ATS mark into game 5.

As far as the upset win goes: there's some appeal on that score too, to be honest. Atlanta Hawks have played good, but not great. That alone indicates the upset isn't as much of a long shot NBA pick as the NBA odds makers would have you believe. So tickle it if you so fancy. We're going to. Why not.

NBA Picks: Nets +350 and +9.0 at GTBets

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