Friday's Upset Prediction with NBA Picks: Kings +6.5 vs. Pelicans

Charles Stark

Friday, March 27, 2015 12:29 PM GMT

Friday, Mar. 27, 2015 12:29 PM GMT

The NBA pick upset special of the day takes us to New Orleans to see how the Sacramento Kings will beat the Pelicans.  The Kings are playing well right now, read more to see why I am backing them tonight.

Karl Getting Through
This past week I backed the Pistons on the money line as underdogs in NBA odds and this situation today reminds of the same kind of momentum.  After the trade to get Jackson, the Pistons did not play well for a couple weeks, but recently they have started to come around.  I attributed this to Stan Van Gundy because he is one of the best in the business, well, so is George Karl.  When he took over the reins the Kings were a mess.  Recently though they have started to really play some good basketball on both end of the floor.  They are on a four game winning streak, and although the NBA odds makers have them at a +7 underdog, I think there is a lot of value to take them in this spot against a team they match up well against.  In the two games these teams have met they have split, interestingly enough it was the visitor that won both match ups and the games were pretty tight.

Check out Friday's top NBA Picks ATS & O/U.

Momentum or Lack Thereof
Since the All Star break both teams are shooting the ball well from the field and ranked in the top part of the league in this time frame, (New Orleans at 46.4% and Sacramento at 45.1%).  They both have also shot beyond the arc well in this time frame at 39% and 36.4% respectively.  There should be no shortage of offensive output in this game.  Recently, as mentioned earlier, the Kings are on a four game winning streak, but the Pelicans have done the opposite losing their last four… mostly those were to very good teams.  In the last three games both teams have shot the ball ok with Sacramento at around 44% and the Pelicans around 46%.  Surprisingly the Pelicans have led the league in that time frame from distance at an amazing 47%; the Kings haven’t been bad either at 40%.  The issue with New Orleans is never about offense, it is simply about their defense.  In the last three games teams have shot 48.5% from the field against the Pelicans, that is the 6th worst ranked in the league.  Sacramento has been playing much better on that end of the floor only allowing 44.3% from the field in the same time frame.  I understand the strength of schedule has a strong effect on these numbers, but from a confidence standpoint I like the Kings right now, and also mentioned before, they match up extremely well with New Orleans despite their differences in record.

 

Value
At over 2-1 odds I like the plus money line in this spot.  I can see why it would be tempting to take the Pelicans to roll here coming off a pretty brutal stretch of games.  But defensively they have been a sieve all year allowing teams 45.6% from the field.  Although Sacramento has similar numbers on the year they have gone through much bigger changes and I think we are starting to see what they can do with Karl at the helm.  They have talent, and as already proven, they can play right with the Pelicans.  Good spot for the upset here so I will add the Sacramento Kings on the plus money line to my NBA Picks, and I suggest you do as well.

NBA Pick: Sacramento +6.5 at Pinnacle

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