After going 2-0 ATS last Friday Swinger is poised to do it all over again as he analyzes the NBA odds and reveals his two top NBA picks for Friday night!
Swinger's NBA Friday Night Record: 2-0 ATS
Lakers (16-44 SU, 28-28-4 ATS) vs. Grizzlies (43-17 SU, 30-29-1 ATS)
It is not unusual that lousy teams like the Lakers have an average ATS record when you factor in the NBA odds. LA is mired in the basement of the Western Conference with no hope for this year and many would say years to come. But that ineptitude has the oddsmakers placating the squares who love to bet big favorites in their NBA picks against woeful cellar dwellers like the Lakers. That leaves openings for the sharps to take advantage of a disproportionate point spread and devour it like Sunday dinner.
Case in point is tonight’s matchup featuring a Western Conference power, the Memphis Grizzlies, as they host the Pacific division’s weak sister the Los Angeles Lakers. But what our homework tells us is that the Lakers have been playing pretty well recently, relatively speaking of course. They are 3-3 straight up over their last six and have covered in five of those contests. In addition their last three defeats have come by an average of only 4.7 points and they may see Nick Young return to action after a four game absence who has averaged 13 ½ PPG versus Memphis.
The Grizzlies shot their load in their last game when Marc Gasol made a game winning bucket with virtually no time on the clock in their 102-100 thriller over their Southwest division rivals the Houston Rockets. Before placing your NBA picks here, keep in mind that they are 9-17 ATS against teams with a losing record and have failed to cover the NBA odds in four of their last five games.
The Lakers are a solid play here getting a big head start from the oddsmakers because they simply match up well against the Grizzlies. Despite a 1-6 record against Memphis over their last seven contests, LA has gone 5-0-2 against the spread in those games and I submit to you had you been shopping for the very best number you could make a case for the Lakers going 7-0 ATS over that span. LA has the advantage on the boards and is actually a click above Memphis in points scored this season (15th vs 16th). Obviously Memphis has a huge advantage defensively but they are not prone to blowing anyone out particularly the Lakers.
NBA Picks: Play Los Angeles +11 ½ at Pinnacle
Detroit Pistons (23-37 SU, 29-31 ATS) vs. Houston Rockets (41-20 SU, 35-25-1 ATS)
The Rockets are still smarting after dropping a heartbreaker to their Western Conference rivals the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night. They will also no doubt be reminded in their pregame sit-down with head coach Kevin McHale of their 114-101 drubbing by the lowly Pistons back in January when the teams last met. This looks like an opportunity for Houston to avenge that loss with an exclamation point after suffering a defeat that could very easily have been a victory on Wednesday night against a fierce divisional rival. The Pistons are no such team and should be handled easily tonight, as NBA odds underdogs.
Head to head, the Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall and 5-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Houston against these same Detroit Pistons. Houston is in danger of suffering their third consecutive loss and falling even further behind the Grizzlies in their quest for the number two seed in the Western Conference. These are the games that championship teams need to put away and I see a Houston team that is ripe for a blowout victory and the Pistons just happen to be meeting the wrong team in the wrong place at the wrong time.
NBA Picks: Play Houston -6 ½ at Pinnacle.com.