A very active day for those assembling their sports picks against the sportsbooks. We have put together the five largest disagreements against the betting odds heading into the weekend.
Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (479-423 L171D)
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers 8:05 ET CSN-NE, FSN-OH
With speculation LeBron James might sit out the next couple games because Cleveland’s fate as the No. 2 seed was set in the Eastern Conference, the NBA odds for this clash were published at 203. Then with Twitter reports suggesting James is listed as ‘Probable’, the total shot up to 207.5. If the King plays, this certainly warrants a higher total, however, this many points seems like an overreaction. One cannot ignore Boston is 5-1 OVER of late but the Cavaliers have only given up triple digits once on past nine contests. Reviewing my power numbers and those at other sites, 204 to 206 is the typical landing destination which is why the lower number works.
NBA Pick – Play Under
Washington Wizards vs. Brooklyn Nets 7:35 ET CSN-DC, YES
Washington is fighting to move into the fourth slot in the East for a first round home court edge and has won four in a row and five of six (3-3 ATS) to trail both Toronto and Chicago by a game. Brooklyn is seemingly even more desperate just trying to make the playoffs, currently in the eighth position with their 11-4 and 9-5-1 ATS push. Given the state of both teams, I would assume several, but not all NBA basketball handicappers were surprised the Nets were up two points to -5.5. In the three previous matchups, the closest outcome was nine points, with the Wizards taking the previous two. After losing to Atlanta in last contest, Brooklyn is 5-17 ATS at home off a home loss.
NBA Pick – Washington covers
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Utah Jazz 9:05 ET SPSO, ROOT-NW
With Memphis attempting to hold on to their lead and in the Southwest Division and Utah acting like they should be in the postseason, those working the NBA odds are calling for a shortage of points and dumped the total from 180 to 177.5. Both squads are conceding just over 88 points a contest in their previous five games and the Jazz are 15-4 UNDER after playing at home. With Memphis off a 110-74 thrashing of New Orleans, the Grizzlies are 8-0 UNDER after a victory by 15 or more points.
NBA Pick – Play Under with your NBA picks
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds 7:10 ET FSN-MW, FSN-O
With the Reds projected to finish in last place in the NL Central, it had to come a bit of a shock even in the first week of the season Cincinnati would be sitting at 3-0 after sweeping Pittsburgh. The Reds have gotten very good pitching and timely hitting; nevertheless, those putting together MLB picks are not on board with Jason Marquis as a Cincy starter against St. Louis and moved Cincinnati from +110 home underdogs to +125. Here are two elements of intrigue why the Reds could be a play tonight. Marquis in his career is 16-6 as a home underdog of +100 to +125 in the MLB odds. And the Cardinals the last two seasons are 5-17 in away games after a day off.
MLB Pick – Lean Cincinnati
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels 10:05 ET FSN-KC, FSN-W
What is more important revenge or confidence? We will find out as it pertains to this AL encounter. Kansas City is the defending AL champions and tossed aside the White Sox in a series sweep (21-7 total score) like a WWE wrestler. The Royals realize they are entering a ticklish spot, having eliminated the Angels 3-0 in the divisional playoffs last October and face them in their home opener. A Jason Vargas vs. Hector Santiago does not yield many answers, but this bit of intel might. In the first dozen games of a new season, home teams that finished their last season 4-11 or worse, facing a visitor that was at 20-10 or better in their last 30 contests from a year ago (includes all games) are 6-34 since 1997.
MLB Pick – Lean Kansas City
Sportsbook Review Tasty Trends
NBA ATS Trend
Milwaukee is 10-0 ATS when facing a team with 25 percent or lower win percentage this season.
NBA Totals Trend
Phoenix is 9-0 OVER in road games off a road loss this season.
MLB Money Line Trend
Miami is 11-1 vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs a game on the season.
NHL Money Line Trend
Columbus is 11-3 after scoring three goals or more in four straight games this season.