Friday Fast Break: Grizzlies Worth Bet with Jazz Sans Mitchell

Jordan Sharp

Friday, November 2, 2018 2:32 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 2, 2018 2:32 PM UTC

Welcome to another big night of NBA regular season action Friday. It’s time for another huge slate of NBA betting and there are still several bits of news and injuries you need to be aware of before placing your bets!

We went through the success that home underdogs were having a few nights ago, and while the gap is closing between them and the road favorites, home dogs are still 20-17 ATS this season. The Nets are one of four home dogs tonight as the Rockets come to town. Can we bet on the Nets with the Rockets potentially missing James Harden again?

Rockets Fade-Worthy Friday

Without Harden on the court this season, the Rockets are averaging just 104.4 points per 100 possessions. That’s down nearly 10 points per 100 possessions from when Harden is on the court, and as of now, he is doubtful to suit up Friday against the Nets.

The Rockets have a back-to-back on Friday-Saturday, and their Saturday game is in Chicago against the hapless Bulls. The Rockets obviously don’t want Harden to play in back-to-back games while nursing a hamstring injury, so even if he is close to coming back, it’s probably foolish to bring him back against the Nets in a game Houston is favored.

However, without Harden, should the Rockets be favored? They have looked down right bad to start the season, even with Harden on the court. While the Nets are no powerhouse, they have a young and diverse group of talent. They can score the ball a number of ways, and pushing the pace is going to be their game plan on Friday with the Rockets short-handed.

Brooklyn is also 2-0 ATS against the Western Conference this season and they are 3-2 ATS in their last five games. Don’t undervalue this team tonight by blindly laying points with the Rockets on the road. Even though Houston has been successful as a road favorite over the last few seasons, if they are without Harden again on Friday, I’m taking the points with Brooklyn. I think Houston is already over-looking Brooklyn and ahead on the schedule during this long road trip they start tonight.

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James Harden doubtful for tomorrow with hopes he will play Saturday in Chicago. Going through full practice today.

— Jonathan Feigen (@Jonathan_Feigen) 1 de novembro de 2018
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Jazz Missing Their Young Superstar

The other big bit of injury news for Friday might also lead to a sizable underdog being a good play ATS. The Utah Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell on Friday as they host a scrappy Grizzlies squad. In what could be one of the lower scoring games of the young season, the Grizzlies hold some value at +7.

Memphis is already undervalued playing in the league’s smallest market, and they have done well being public fades, covering at 4-2 ATS and covering four of their last five games.

With Marc Gasol and Mike Conley back this season, the Grizzlies have a nice mixture of young forwards and veteran guards. Along with Gasol clogging up the middle and putting a big body in between the basket and Rudy Gobert, the Grizzlies could keep this one close tonight.

Memphis currently ranks third in the league in defensive rating, allowing only 102.7 points per game. Utah, a team usually known for defense, has been five points worse than that to open the year.

While the sample sizes are still quite small, six and seven games are enough to get some information from. If this Memphis team is back to the defensive upside we have come to expect, I expect them to cover tonight with Mitchell sitting out.

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Friday NBA Betting Trends
  • The Magic are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against the Clippers
  • The Rockets are 1-9 ATS against the Atlantic Division since 2017
  • The Nets are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against the Rockets
  • The OVER is 3-1 in the last 4 games between the Nets and Rockets
  • The OVER is 2-1 in the last 3 meetings between the Wizards and Thunder
  • The UNDER is 5-3 in the last 8 games between the Bulls and Pacers
  • The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 games between the Mavericks and Knicks
  • The Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against the Jazz
  • The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the Raptors
  • The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 games between the Wolves and Warriors
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