Chandler's Addition & Defense Give 'Under' Big Boost For Jazz-Lakers

Thursday, November 22, 2018 7:03 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 22, 2018 7:03 PM UTC

The Los Angeles Lakers have started winning again, but they’re still not beating the NBA odds. Go for the 'under' instead when they host the Utah Jazz this Friday.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Nov. 21: 6-6 ATS, 1-1 Totals

Utah (8-9 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (9-7 SU, 6-10 ATS)Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV)Free NBA Pick: UnderBest Line Offered: BetOnline

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It’s time to put our money where our mouth is. In our recent look at the state of the NBA, we mentioned that the UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine games for the Los Angeles Lakers. Conveniently enough, they host the Utah Jazz this Friday night, and the Jazz can’t shoot for beans. This should be a lovely spot to put the UNDER in your post-Thanksgiving NBA picks.

That’s assuming nothing too crazy goes up on the NBA odds board for Friday’s total. It’s early Wednesday as I write this; both the Lakers and the Jazz are in action tonight before taking Turkey Day off, so there aren’t any lines available as we go to press. But as long as nobody gets hurt or suspended, we expect the total will give us the betting value we’re looking for.

Fear the Beard

The Lakers (UNDER 8-7-1), as we mentioned previously, are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS since they picked up Tyson Chandler after the Phoenix Suns bought out his contract. Chandler is exactly the kind of player L.A. wanted to surround LeBron James with this season: a defensive wizard on a cheap one-year deal. Chandler has delivered the goods, too.

His value on offense is harder to pin down. Chandler is scoring a career-low 4.7 points per 36 minutes with L.A., in a small sample size mind you. But he’s also grabbing 5.8 offensive rebounds. That’s not nothing. Whatever the case, it all adds up to minus-3.5 OBPM according to Basketball Reference, so for our purposes, Chandler is golden.

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Donovan Mitchell had 31 points on 13-35 shooting with 0 assists. He's the first player with 35 FGA and 0 assists in a game since Carmelo Anthony on January 24, 2014 vs the Bobcats when Melo scored a career-high 62 points (23-35) with 0 assists. pic.twitter.com/xCA1Cso0mQ

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) 17 de novembro de 2018
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That Mitchell and Brick Look

The Jazz (OVER 11-6) might not look like the right dance partner for the Lakers, but they did cash in the UNDER three times in their last five games. Ricky Rubio (minus-0.4 OBPM) can’t hit a bucket. Dante Exum (minus-1.6 OBPM) can’t hit a bucket. Donovan Mitchell (0.0 OBPM) has seen his shooting average drop across the board, including from long range, where Mitchell has fallen from 34.0 percent last year to 29.0 percent this year. Woof.

Meanwhile, Rudy Gobert (plus-3.4 DBPM) hasn’t been quite as stifling on defense as in years past, but he’s still doing a fine job at that end of the court. And the Jazz being the Jazz, they have one of the slower paces in the league at 101.5 possessions per game (No. 22 overall). That should slow the Lakers down somewhat. And who knows, maybe everyone will still be lurgy from all that Thanksgiving dinner they’ll scarf down the night before. Don’t bogart that cranberry sauce, LeBron.

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