Free NBA Picks: Wizards +4.5 Provide Contrarian Value vs. Jazz

Nikki Adams

Friday, March 11, 2016 8:34 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 11, 2016 8:34 PM UTC

Here’s a preview of the clash between the Wizards and Jazz and serve up choice NBA picks. Find out where we’re lining up our money in both straight up and against the spread markets.

Washington Wizards (30-33)
Washington Wizards are riding a three-game losing streak into tonight’s clash with the Utah Jazz. The recent dip in form sees them slip to a 5-5 SU record and, worse yet, a 30-33 SU record on the season, which puts them outside of the playoff picture.

The Wizards will be desperate to snap the rot and get back into the win column tonight, but the NBA odds are stacked against them. In fact, since odds makers opened the game on 3.5-point line with the Wizards to the disadvantage they’ve been bet up to +4.5 almost unanimously across sports betting platforms.

The Wizards are coming off losses to Cleveland, Indiana (home) and Portland – a trio of playoff contenders that were always going to be a tough ask, particularly those that were on the road. Prior to this recent slide they were enjoying a nice run of form with four straight wins, including a signature win over the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers at home. In fact, they are 7-5 SU in their last 12 games overall.

Where the Wizards have struggled the most this season is on the road. They are a subpar 14-16-0 SU on their travels, highlighted by just a 3-7 SU record in their last ten away games. That’s hardly a ringing endorsement of their chances to mastermind the upset on the NBA betting floor.

Wizards are 14-16-0 SU and 16-14-0 ATS on the road with a 4.1-point losing margin and a 0.7-point differential versus the spread. As away underdogs, they are 8-14-0 SU and 11-11-0 ATS with a 6.2-point losing margin and 0.4-point differential versus the spread.


Utah Jazz (29-35)
The Utah Jazz slipped to a 29-35 SU mark on the heels of their latest defeat, a crushing 115-94 loss to the Golden State Warriors on the road. It marked their second straight loss in as many days following a loss to Atlanta (91-84) and sees them slip to a 2-8 SU mark in their last ten games. Yet, in spite of what is obviously concerning form, odds makers match the Jazz as the home favorites on the NBA odds board.

That has a lot to do with the fact that the Jazz are 19-13-0 SU at home on the season with a 3.8-point winning margin on average, as well as 16-8-0 with a 5.5-point winning margin when they are matched as the home favorites in NBA betting markets.

Still there is a conspicuous steady and concentrated decline in recent weeks that is beginning to threaten even their home form. They are 2-8 SU in their last ten games and an even worse 3-10 SU in their last 13 games. Home form remains a positive 19-13-0 on the season, but they’ve lost their last three home games – to San Antonio, Brooklyn and Atlanta. What’s more, they are just 2-3 SU in their last five home games with wins over Boston and Houston. Utah Jazz are 16-16-0 ATS at home and 11-13-0 ATS as home favorites.


NBA Betting Verdict
The Jazz are wholly off color and off form right now. Granted they’ve had a gruelling schedule with many away games but it’s clearly having an impact on their home form of late, which is something to consider before making your NBA picks. In fact, it might serve up contrarian value with the Wizards in our opinion, who are enjoying slightly better form of late and should fancy their chances against a Utah Jazz that is there for the taking.

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NBA Picks: Wizards +4.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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