Free NBA Picks: Who Cares About Detroit? Apparently Not Kevin Durant

Mark Lathrop

Friday, April 1, 2016 10:14 AM GMT

An injury depleted Dallas heads to Detroit in an important matchup for each team on Friday night. Our NBA handicapper spots a mismatch leading to superior wagering value as he gives his NBA pick!

Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons  
With both the Dallas Mavericks (37-38) and Detroit Pistons (40-35) facing precarious positions with any new losses coming in their final seven games, motivation should be high on both sides for this game at Detroit. Detroit is locked into the 7th seed in the East, while the Mavericks are currently tied for the 7th seed in the West with 3 teams. The odds in this one have opened favoring the home town Pistons at 6 points at Heritage. The O/U total has opened at 205.5 at sites such as 5Dimes.

But, “Who cares about Detroit?” Apparently not Kevin Durant, who was a little perturbed by the antics of Reggie Jackson during the Detroit win against the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game. Detroit won that game, 88-82, and Durant apparently believed it was because he and Serge Ibaka were not in the lineup. I don’t think that caused OKC to shoot 63.6% from the charity stripe, however. On the Pistons part, they did shoot pretty badly from the floor at 37.9%, but they did take advantage of their free throws, hitting 18 of 20 shots. This performance brought up their average because Detroit is only shooting 66.4% from the free throw line all year.

That win for Detroit continued their strong showings at home, where the Pistons are 25-13 SU and 23-13 against the NBA odds boards this year. This record is good for +9.9 units on the season, so they’ve definitely been undervalued in this situation. They’ll need to reverse another trend to win this game though as Dallas has won four straight on Detroit’s home floor.

The Dallas Mavericks are also coming off of a good win, a 91-89 nail biter against the New York Knicks at home. This is a very rough stretch for the Mavericks right now, as they are in the midst of 6 road games out of 7 games. That game against New York was at home, but the Mavericks are still just 4-10 SU in their last 14 games. They are dealing with injuries too, with Deron Williams out for this game and Chandler Parsons out for the season. Fortunately for the Mavericks they face multiple teams down the stretch that could be resting starters for the playoffs. That should even out things somewhat as they are missing bodies.

Not the case in this game though, as Detroit tries to repeat the win they had against Dallas just three weeks ago in early March. In that game, Detroit won 102-96 in Dallas behind the 25 points of Andre Drummond. Dallas went all hack-a-Shaw in that game, as Drummond went to the line 14 times – hitting just 5 free throws. It was enough to make Drummond +0 on his 33:56 minutes for the night, but his 17 rebounds certainly didn’t suck.

Chandler Parsons scored 25 points in that game and Deron Williams led the team with 9 assists. It is not known where the replacement points will come from for Dallas here, as J.J. Barea – Williams replacement – went -14 on his 13 minutes played in that match up.

 

Betting Analysis
Things just don’t seem to be lining up well for Dallas in this matchup, and the players that found success against Detroit in the game three weeks ago will be missing due to injury. With a motivated Detroit squad feeling their oats after the game against OKC, back the Pistons at -6 at Heritage as one of your Friday NBA picks

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2883589, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,92,238,169,19], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NBA Pick: Detroit Pistons -5.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle