Free NBA Picks: Trust High Value Spurs To Cover Against Wizards

Jason Lake

Wednesday, December 16, 2015 12:21 PM GMT

They're the best team outside of Golden State, but can the San Antonio Spurs keep beating the NBA odds when they host the Washington Wizards this Wednesday?

Jason's 2015-16 record as of Dec. 15: 9-10 ATS, 3-1 Total
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Free NBA Pick: Spurs -13
Best Odds Offered By Pinnacle

 

Okay, now that the Golden State Warriors have finally lost a game, let's turn our attention to that other outstanding team out West, the San Antonio Spurs (21-5 SU, 17-9 ATS). They're having the kind of early-season run that would grab all the headlines any other year. Even now, here I am talking about Golden State, when the Spurs are on pace to win 66 games this season. That would break their franchise record of 63 wins set back in 2005-06.

We only bring up the Warriors to underline how much betting value the Spurs have enjoyed this year while working in Golden State's long shadow. They'll try to keep the good times rolling this Wednesday night (8:30 p.m. ET) when they host the Washington Wizards, who have fallen to 10-13 SU and 11-12 ATS after running into some injury problems. The Wiz are 13-point puppies on our NBA odds board with a total of 197 as we go to press.

 

Rock 'n' Roll RPMs
Let's start by taking you back, way back in time to Saturday, where we had the Spurs (-3 away) in our NBA picks versus the Atlanta Hawks. Final score: San Antonio 103, Atlanta 78. This was a complete butt-kicking by the San Antonio defense. The Hawks scored just 25 points in the first half and shot 30-of-80 for the game, including 5-of-24 from long range. Then the Spurs went out and crushed the Utah Jazz (+12.5 away) 118-81 on Monday. Utah was down 59-36 at halftime.

So when are we going to start talking about Kawhi Leonard (27.4 PER, +9.5 BPM) as a possible MVP candidate? Maybe not this year, the way Stephen Curry's been playing, but it's time to stop thinking about Leonard as a fringe All-Star and start thinking about him as a fringe MVP. Leonard is fourth in the NBA in Real Plus-Minus (as opposed to Box Plus/Minus) at +8.68, behind Curry (+10.85 RPM), Russell Westbrook (+10.65 RPM) and Kyle Lowry (+9.40 RPM). In fifth place? Some guy named LeBron James (+8.63 RPM).

 

Tear Down This Wall
The Wizards have an All-Star point guard of their own in John Wall (21.3 PER, +3.3 BPM), and he's been on fire this month after dealing with some ankle issues earlier in the season. But Wall will have to play the next two weeks or so without SG Bradley Beal (14.7 PER, -1.4 BPM) by his side. On Monday, Wall was held to a lonely six points on 2-of-11 shooting in a 112-95 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies (-3 at home).

Beal doesn't have the kind of advanced stats that pop out at you, but he's hitting 38.9 percent from downtown, while Wall is just 34.3 percent – prompting head coach Randy Wittman to remind Wall not to shoot so many threes. It's a problem that the Spurs are in excellent position to exploit this Wednesday.

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