Free NBA Picks: Timberwolves vs. Bucks

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, April 3, 2013 1:26 PM GMT

Two northern foes face off this evening from Milwaukee, as they failing Wolves head to see the playoff bound Bucks tonight. Look inside for our free NBA picks for this matchup.

The NBA odds for this one favor Milwaukee by -5 with a total of 207 points. With one team headed for the playoffs and the other headed for another lottery pick, which side of these numbers should we back with tonight's sports picks to cash another winner?

[gameodds]5/223735/43/us[/gameodds]

Wolves’ season to forget

Minnesota has been in constant sorrow this season, and I think the end couldn’t come soon enough for this worn down team. No NBA team has dealt with as much adversity and injuries this season, and for a team that had high hopes, they will have to reboot and do it again next season.

The biggest issue was the injury to Kevin Love, who looks more and more like he will not play another game this season. That has not only hurt their offense but their defense as well. Love is one of the league’s best defensive rebounders.

Where the absence of Love has really shown has been Minnesota’s ability to score on the road. Although they haven’t been bad on the road this season, the Wolves are only averaging 95 points per game on the road this season, which is well below average. They might have a chance to up that average just a bit tonight against the defenseless Bucks. Milwaukee is giving up 102 points per game at home this season, but it is because they score a lot more at home too.

Upset special?

The will have to do it on the road and likely against the Heat or Pacers, but the Bucks are no pushover this season. If they can get consistent from home to road, they could give Miami or whomever they play in the first round a fight.

Tonight against the Wolves, I love the 'over' in this spot. The Bucks have been scoring the ball very well at home recently. They just had a game where they dropped 131 on the Bobcats in regulation, and while the Wolves are not the Cats on defense, they do give up over 100 points per game on the road.

The Bucks will have to deal with Nikola Pekovic in the middle tonight, a center who knows his way around the paint. However, on the road tonight, I think he will definitely be more of a force on offense than defense. He and Larry Sanders area mismatch for one another, and I think both will have an affect tonight.

Take a look at our NBA Picks of the Day for more free plays.

The Sharp Pick

Although their recent matchups haven’t been as high scoring, tonight will be different. This is the highest total being offered up by sportbooks tonight which does give me a little concern, but Milwaukee could be due for another 110 point or higher night like two nights ago. In their last three home games, the Bucks are averaging about 113 points per game and the Wolves could surely give that many up tonight on the road. The Bucks have cashed the over in four of their last five games overall and five of their last six home games. The Wolves are just slightly better at going over on the road this season at 19-17 and with the end of the season drawing near, defense isn’t going to be much of a priority for Minnesota, or Milwaukee for that matter.

My NBA Pick: OVER 207 at Bookmaker