Free NBA Picks: Tepid Offenses Provide Clear O/U Value on Knicks vs. Lakers

Jordan Sharp

Monday, March 14, 2016 4:01 PM GMT

Even though neither The Knickers or the Lakers are going to the playoffs, there could still be some NBA Odds value with this game tonight, with the Knicks as -2 road favorites. 

Injury Updates
As always, we have to look at whether or not Kobe Bryant is going to play when we handicap Lakers games, but after a couple days off from his best game of the season, Bryant looks like he is going to suit it up tonight. While that probably hurts a potential play on the under tonight, there are other factors that could potentially lead to a lower scoring game.

Lou Williams also looks like he is set to make his return tonight, but Aron Afflalo is still questionable for the Knicks in this one. Afflalo has been very much up and down this season in New York, but if he doesn’t suit up tonight, it could affect the Knicks’ offense.

The last time these two teams met up with one another the total went under, and the Knicks got a four-point victory. However, that game was way back in November, but could we see a similarly close and low scoring game tonight?

The Lakers have been one of the best under cashing teams this season when playing at home, cashing the under at 20-11 on the season. A big reason for this is their improved defense recently when they play at home. If you take away their game against Cleveland a few nights ago where they gave up 120 points, the Lakers are giving up only 102.4 points per game in their last five home games, and that includes their upset win against the Warriors.

With how slowly the Knicks have been playing recently, and with the Lakers playing better at home, the under is the play for me tonight.

 

The Sharp Pick
The total has already been creeping downward from where it opened, and while that is a good indication as to where the sharps are going with this one, a bigger piece of evidence of a potentially lower scoring game is the pace. The Knicks play at the sixth slowest pace of any team this season, and while the Lakers play around the middle of the league in pace, the Lakers slow down to a pace of 97.5 when they play at home, which ranks them as the 11st slowest home team.

The Knicks have now cashed the under in seven of last eight games and three of last four road games heading into tonight, while the Lakers have cashed the under in five of last six home games. The Lakers are 5-3 cashing the under with 2-3 days rest this season, and while Bryant playing doesn’t help the under too much, with the Knicks playing so slow, and with Bryant playing, the Lakers are definitely going to get into more half court sets in this one. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 12 teams in the league in Offensive Rating, while the Knicks rank 12st in ORtg when they play on the road.

The Knicks are also 24-15 cashing under after SU loss, and these two teams combined to cash the under at 31-20 in non-conference games this season. Add the under to your NBA Picks tonight and don't forget to see what other valuable games are available on the NBA odds boards too. 

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NBA Pick: Under 205.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes