Free NBA Picks: Take the Raptors (+6.5) to Cover vs. Clippers in LA

Darin Zank

Sunday, November 22, 2015 3:33 PM GMT

Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 3:33 PM GMT

While the Clippers are just 1-6 against the NBA odds over their last seven games, Toronto is 5-1 ATS over its last six outings. Who do we like for Sunday afternoon's matinee at Staples Center?

Raptors-Clippers Betting Odds
Sunday's NBA odds market opened Los Angeles at -6 over Toronto, with a total of right around 207. In the early betting some books bumped the Clippers to -6.5, while dropping the total as much as two points, to 205.

 

The Situation
Toronto (8-6 SU, 10-4 ATS) just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 102-91 win at the Lakers Friday night. The Raptors trailed by seven points midway through the third quarter, then went on a 20-5 run to take the lead for good. They let LA get within six points with just under two minutes to go, but held on from there, and covered as six-point favorites.

On the night Toronto hit 15 of 33 shots from beyond the arc, led by Kyle Lowry's 7/11 performance.

But the Raptors began this West Coast road trip with three straight defeats, falling at Sacramento last Sunday 107-101, at Golden State Tuesday 115-110 and at Utah Wednesday 93-89.

LA (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS), meanwhile, has lost two in a row itself, and four of its last five, after dropping a game up in Portland Friday night 102-91. The Clippers only trailed by a point with four minutes to go, but got outscored 16-6 down the stretch.

LA shot 44 percent from the floor Friday, and held the Blazers to 42 percent shooting, but got outrebounded 66-48, and gave up 17 offensive boards.

Thursday night the Clippers led undefeated Golden State by 23 points in the third quarter, but choked it away and lost 124-117.

Toronto swept two games from LA last season, by scores of 110-98 and 123-107, both times out as betting dogs. The Raptors shot 48 percent from the floor in that first meeting, making 13 of 34 shots from 3-point range, then 53 percent in that second game, hitting 13 of 30 from long range, rallying from an early 20-point deficit for the victory.

 

Raps-Clips Totals Trends
Toronto is 9-5 on the UNDERS this season, as Raptors games have averaged 199 points.

LA is 8-4 on the OVERS, as Clips games have averaged 210 points.

 

Injury Update
Toronto C Jonas Valanciunas (13 PPG, nine RPG) broke a bone in his hand Friday night and is “out indefinitely,” as they say.

Over on the other bench LA guard JJ Redick had missed recent action with a sore back, but he played Friday night, although he only shot three-for-12 from the field.

 

Raps-Clips Free NBA Picks
Toronto just lost its starting center, and his absence might negate any advantage the Raptors had on the boards for this game. But actually, we find that NBA teams are very good at rising to the occasion when suddenly missing key players, and they often get an extra bucket or two on the betting lines. Also, LA is one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the league. We like Toronto here, plus the points. Also, both games these teams played last season would have played OVER Sunday's total, so we're thinking OVER here, too.

Picks: Raptors +6.5 at Heritage & OVER 205 at Pinnacle

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