Free NBA Picks: Take Pacers & Heat To Go 'Over' 202 Tonight

Jordan Sharp

Monday, February 22, 2016 5:11 PM GMT

Monday, Feb. 22, 2016 5:11 PM GMT

The Heat are going through some major injury concerns right now as we head into the stretch run of the regular season, and tonight they play host to the Pacers. Free NBA picks inside. 

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NBA Pick: OVER 202
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

Heat Losing Health
In my article and video talking about teams to target in the second half, I mentioned the Miami Heat as a possibility, and in two games since the All Star Break, Miami has won and covered both games without the services of Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Bosh will once again be out tonight dealing with a scary injury of blood clots, and while Wade is being listed as questionable for this one, his status may not have any effect on our potential for a winning pick on this game tonight against the NBA odds.

The one thing that Miami has done with those two out recently has been playing faster. Miami has exceeded their snails pace from the beginning of the season for a more fast break style of offense. Without Bosh and potentially without Wade tonight, the Heat really don’t have anyone to run half court sets for, so smartly Erik Spoelstra has given Goran Dragic and the rest of the Heat the keys to the car, and they have not disappointed.

If the Heat continue to play that fast tonight against the Pacers, this total is bound to go over. Miami has scored 115 and 114 points in their last two games respectfully, and with the Pacers already playing at the 8th fastest pace in the NBA this season, this game is going to be a run and gun contest.

In their first meeting with one another this season, even with the Heat mostly healthy, the final score was 103-100, easily cashing the over. Tonight we may see a game even higher scoring than their matchup in early January, and if that’s the case, I am pounding the over tonight.

 

The Sharp Pick
The over has now cashed in six of the Pacers last nine games sandwiching the All Star Break, and while the Heat are trending under this season, the last two games are eye opening for ways the Heat can stay competitive even without their two veteran future Hall of Famers.

The Heat have hoisted 88 and 96 shot attempts in their last two games, and if that stays true tonight against another fast paced offense, the over is a steal of value tonight. Indiana is already giving up about 102 points per game on the road this season, and with both teams averaging about 103 points per game in their last ten contests, I’m not sure why the total for this one is below 200 points.

However, it might not stay there for long if bettors think the Heat will continue at their current pace. Miami’s offense has basically been taken down to pick and roll and fast breaks without Bosh and Wade, and even if the latter player comes back tonight from his injury, the Heat might still be forced to play fast if the Pacers want to speed things up tonight. I’m looking for a final score of about 109-107, so add the over to your NBA Picks for Monday night.

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