Free NBA Picks: Take Nuggets +2 At Home Against Streaking Grizzlies

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, January 21, 2016 3:59 PM GMT

Thursday, Jan. 21, 2016 3:59 PM GMT

The Grizzlies fly into the Mile High City as winners of three straight while their hosts, the Denver Nuggets, are in the midst of an eight-game home stand. Let's check out the NBA odds first.

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NBA Pick: Nuggets +2
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Memphis Grizzlies (24-19 SU, 20-22-1 ATS)
The Grizzlies had a successful homestand recording a 5-1 straight up mark and going 4-2 ATS over those six home contests. In their last outing the Grizzlies were installed as 5 ½ point home chalk by the NBA odds makers over the New Orleans Pelicans yet it took a fourth quarter rally to escape with a 101-99 victory. It was a balanced attack to be sure as five Grizzlies scored in double digits including Mike Conley who had been sidelined for the past six games with an Achilles injury. Conley's impact was clearly illustrated by his 15 points and team leading 10 assists (his third double-double of the season) and a +18 plus/minus differential.

"I was a little sore," Conley said. "I hadn't had activity like that since I went down. As the game went on, it warmed up, but (after the game) it was pretty sore."

Memphis is still among the bottom third in points scored averaging just 96.3 points per game but their defense has been critical to any success they have experienced this season. The team is ranked 6th in the league, holding opponents to just 98.7 PPG. Marc Gasol is the team scoring leader averaging 16.4 per game while logging 35.1 minutes per contest.

 

Denver Nuggets (16-26 SU, 20-20-2 ATS)
Denver is 3-2 straight up during this homestand but have rewarded all those who have backed them in their NBA picks over their last five games with a money-making 4-1 ATS record. Though their last outing on Tuesday night against Oklahoma City was unsuccessful, bowing 110-104, it was indeed an ATS cover as the oddsmakers installed the Nuggets as nine-point home dogs. Had it not been for a cold second quarter when they were outscored 32-22 by Kevin Durant & Co. Denver may have notched an upset over one of the premier teams in the league.

The Nuggets have rebounded well this season averaging 44.7 per game good for 10th in the league and have had good ball distribution as evidenced by their 22.3 assists per game (10th ranked) yet their scoring has been anemic when compared to some of their high flying editions of seasons' past. Denver averages 99.4 points per game (21st ranked) and allows 103.5 PPG (23rd ranked). Six-year veteran Danilo Gallinari is averaging 19 points per game and is the team leader in that category as well as minutes played, averaging 34.5 per contest.

 

Betting Analysis
January 8th of this year was the first and only time these clubs have met this season. The Grizzlies, installed as six-point home favorites, dribbled away with a 91-84 win and a narrow ATS cover. In fact the last three meetings have occurred in Memphis and the Grizzlies have won all three and covered in two. However the venue has shifted to Denver for this one and it was just over a year ago that the Nuggets massacred Memphis to the tune of 114-85 as two-point home favorites.

Getting Mike Conley back is a big boon for the Grizzlies but the key to this game will be who bangs the glass the hardest. Denver is 0-13 straight up when they get outrebounded as they did against Oklahoma City in their last outing. Yet it is unlikely they lose that battle tonight when  one recognizes that rebounding is one thing the Nuggets (10th) do very well and the Grizzlies, well, not so much as they are ranked 27th of 30.

In addition the betting trends are clearly in favor of the home team tonight when you consider that Memphis is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a win and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Conversely Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five home contests and are perhaps playing their best basketball of the season.

In addition the Pepsi Center has not been kind to Memphis having gone 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Denver while the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two clubs.

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