Free NBA Picks : Take Grizzlies Tempting Odds vs. Cavaliers

Nikki Adams

Monday, March 7, 2016 8:37 PM UTC

Monday, Mar. 7, 2016 8:37 PM UTC

Can the Memphis Grizzlies upset the NBA odds when they descend on the high-flying Cleveland Cavaliers? Find out as we preview this clash and serve up our choice NBA picks.

Memphis Grizzlies (37-25)
The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off a loss, but recent form is a positive 7-3 SU in their last ten games, a run of form that augurs well ahead of their clash with the Cleveland Cavaliers – what is sure to be a tough ask to mastermind the upset. Can they accomplish the feat?

By the odds, the Grizzlies are a long shot NBA pick to pull off the upset. They are trading as the staggering +800 bet to win outright, a price that was bet up from an opening +600 in the market. Against the spread, things aren’t looking to promising either with the Grizzlies nestled delicately on a 12.5-point spread across sports betting platforms, also up from an opening 11-points.

Two things that stand against the Grizzlies are a) they are coming off a loss last night and b) they lost all while installed as the home chalk on the NBA odds board. Grizzlies lost to the Phoenix Suns 109-100 at home on Sunday night, all while trading as the whopping 9.5-point home chalk. That setback snapped a three-game winning streak and three straight covers on the NBA betting floor.

Playing back-to-back games in as many nights might not be a tough ask for the Grizzlies per say nor bouncing back to winning form, but to do so at the expense the high-flying Cavaliers is. Hence the rather discouraging outlook on the NBA odds boards.

That said, the Grizzlies are 32-29-1 ATS on the season with a 0.4-point winning margin and a negative 2.2-point differential versus the spread. On the road, they are 14-14-1 ATS with a 1.2-point losing margin and a 0.9-point differential versus the spread. As away underdogs, they are 5-8-1 ATS with a 7.1-point losing margin and negative 2.4-point differential versus the spread.


Cleveland Cavaliers (44-17)
The Cleveland Cavaliers are riding a three-game winning streak ahead of their clash with the Memphis Grizzlies. As a result, they improve to a 7-3 SU mark in their last ten games and a stellar 44-17 mark on the season. Obviously, they’ll be looking to continue the momentum at the expense of their visitors.

The Cavaliers have been one of the best home teams in the NBA with a 27-5 SU record, only the defending champions Golden State Warriors (26-0) and San Antonio Spurs (30-0) are better. That’s nothing to scoff at.

Where the Cavaliers have come up somewhat short is against the spread – largely down to bookies putting up inflated spreads on the NBA odds board. The Cavaliers are 28-31-2 on the season with a 6.2-point winning margin and a negative 0.4-point differential versus the spread. At home, they are 16-16-0 ATS with an 8.2-point winning margin and a negative 0.8-point differential versus the spread. As home faves, they are 15-16-0 ATS with an 8-point winning margin and a negative 1.4-point differential versus the spread.


NBA Betting Verdict
Undoubtedly, the Cleveland Cavaliers deserve to be the significant home favourites to win straight up. Their home record speaks volumes, beating them on their stomping ground is no mean feat. Where NBA bettors can find contrarian value on their NBA picks is against the spread. The Cavaliers are modest against the spread this season, probably down to the fact that odds makers inflate the NBA lines and square bettors who bet them up ridiculously at times.

Memphis Grizzlies are a solid team that could give the Cavaliers a run for their money as the 12.5-point road underdogs. Granted they were embarrassed by the Cavaliers at home earlier this season, but that could prove to be an incentive for a better account here. It’s a bit of a long shot still, but we’re tickling the Grizzlies on our NBA picks to serve up a closer contest than the odds makers would have it and cover as the 12.5-point road underdogs. Don't miss out on our other top value plays for tonight!

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NBA Pick: Memphis Grizzlies +12
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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