Free NBA Picks: The Suarez Selection

Steven Suarez

Friday, March 1, 2013 3:24 PM GMT

Friday, Mar. 1, 2013 3:24 PM GMT

Two of the hottest teams in the league meet up in South Beach tonight. LeBron and the Heat have been on fire, but find out why they may not be the right side with our NBA picks.

Miami Heat

Chalmers, Wade, James, Haslem, Bosh

Memphis Grizzlies

Conley, Allen, Prince, Randolph, Gasol

Odds Lines: NBA odds have opened the Heat -8, O/U: 187.5

The Heat have all the star power, but we think this line is a little too high for this visit of a veteran Memphis team.

Yes, Miami is on a 12-game winning streak, but they've looked a bit shaky over their last two contests, both of which were at home against weak opposition. First they survived against Cleveland in a 109-105 win, before needing double overtime to get past Sacramento 141-129 two nights later.

We don't need to tell you how much better the Grizzlies are than both of those teams.

Memphis is on a good roll of their own, having won eight straight. During that span they've gone 5-3 ATS, while covering in three straight road matchups.

The key to this streak for the Grizzlies has been incredible defense. Over their last five games, they've given up just 82.2 PPG on 41.3 percent shooting, and that kind of defensive intensity is going to come in handy against the firepower of Miami. Memphis needs to make this a half-court game if they want to hang around.

Though LeBron and D-Wade should be getting their fair share of points once more, the Heat have struggled against teams with a good inside presence and the Grizzlies are certainly one of those. We don't see how the likes of Bosh and Haslem will be able to contain the talent and toughness of Gasol and Randolph in the post.

All in all, we feel as if oddsmakers are overvaluing Miami in this spot. Memphis is very unlikely to go down without a fight, so we like the eight points tonight our NBA Picks.

[gameodds]5/219709/43/us[/gameodds]

NBA Picks: Memphis Grizzlies +8

See Jeff Grant's ideas about this match-up

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