Free NBA Picks: Spurs Will Come Through In Clutch Game vs. Thunder

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, May 6, 2016 5:19 PM GMT

Each of the first two games between Spurs & Thunder have been a Top Play Winner in the series for this bureau.Tonight could well be the same for your NBA pick.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
In game 2, the Thunder held a 4 point lead in the final 15 seconds before holding on for a 98-97 win on Monday. On Tuesday, the NBA ruled that there were 5 incorrect non-calls in that closing stretch of 15 seconds. The most flagrant of those came when OKC’s Dion Waiters pushed Ginobili away with his elbow on an inbounds play with 13.5 seconds to go. Also, Ginobili should have been charged with a delay of game violation for stepping on the sideline as he was defending Waiters.

Potential fouls from SA’s Leonard and Mills affected OKC’s pass inbounds, which was then stolen from Durant by Danny Green. Aldridge, who was 10 for 10 from the stripe and finished with 41 points, should have received two foul shots when OKC’s Ibaka grabbed his jersey as Aldridge was attempting to rebound Mills’ three point shot. Needless to say, there will be plenty of emotion attached to game 3. With four days to prepare, it is clear that San Antonio will have the emotional edge in this one. Perhaps that is why this line has moved from OKC (-1.5) to San Antonio (-1.5). 

Betting Analysis
But before you take off the rubber band, note that OKC is 11-3 at home vs San Antonio (2-0 this season), including 5-1 in the playoffs.  The Thunder also enter today with a 33-10 home record, including 8 of 9 of late. 

San Antonio’s first order of business will be a better start than when OKC bolted to a 17-4 edge in game 2. The Spurs went 1-13 from the field to start the game, and shot only 43% after shooting 61% in game 1. 

With respect to the OKC home court, please note that this is about as strong a situational play as it gets in the NBA playoffs. Game 3 road teams who are priced as the superior team as road chalk to +2 are an over 80% winning situation when facing greater than .625 opponents. This has been like money in the bank if our road team is off a loss in the previous game. With the Spurs standing 10-4 ATS/loss this season, we will line up with San Antonio, who has been seething for four days about the events of the last 13 seconds which led to their demise in game 2. 

I invite you to put the NBA odds in your favor and join me in my NBA pick on the San Antonio Spurs in NBA playoff action tonight. And if you're looking for additional information on this game, I recommend reading our fellow capper's breakdown on why the Spurs are the pick where the money's at.

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Free MLB Pick: San Antonio Spurs
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