We hit only one of our three player props for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, but a perfect night of team props put us into the winning category on Thursday. Get more winning picks for tonight.
Matthew Dellavedova O/U 3.5 assists
When you first look at some lines and you think about how the chalk on a favored side is too much to overcome, you usually just ignore that particular line. However, when it comes to Matthew Dellavedova’s assists total for this game of 3.5, I am not turned off from the chalk with the under at -160.
Dellavedova has been playing only around 10-12 minutes per game in the playoffs. In some of the Cavs blowouts, he has seen a lot of minutes, but here in the Finals, the rotations have been shortened. The Cavs are not going to win anything if Dellavedova is playing 15-plus minutes because that likely means that Kyrie Irving is either hurt or in foul trouble.
With Irving playing 37-38 minutes, that only leaves about 10 for Dellavedova, and there is little to no way that if he is getting those kinds of minutes that he gets four or more assists. In games where he has gotten 11 or fewer minutes, he is averaging 2.75 assists per game, so around two or three is what I expect here tonight.
NBA Pick: UNDER 3.5 (-160)
Best Line Offered: at Bet365
Tristan Thompson O/U 17.5 points, rebounds and assists
Tristan Thompson has all of ten assists in 15 postseason games. However, he may not need to get any tonight if he is dunking and rebounding like he did in Game 1. In 31 minutes in Game 1, all of which were at center, Thompson had a double-double with 10 points and 12 rebounds.
Even though Channing Frye is likely to get some more minutes in Game 2, Thompson should still see his minutes right around 30. With the way he is rebounding the ball on the offensive and defensive end, his rebounds aren’t a stat we need to worry about too much. He should still record nine or 10 rebounds in Game 2. Golden State is not a great rebounding team on either end, and in the playoffs it has been the one area teams have consistently beaten them in. So, as long as Thompson can get some dunks and maybe even luck into an assist, I think the over is the play for his prop tonight. With NBA Odds of even money, it’s a solid risk to take even if he loses some minutes to Frye.
NBA Pick: OVER 17.5 (+100)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
Andre Iguodala O/U 5.5 rebounds
Much like Dellavedova’s assists prop for Game 2, Andre Iguodala’s rebounding prop has similar value despite heavy chalk. Even though Iguodala has been rebounding the ball very well recently, it is not a sustainable effort from him despite the heavy minutes that he has been, and will likely continue to play. He had seven rebounds in Game 1, which he has now done twice in his last three games. However, the Cavs are one of the better rebounding teams in the NBA, and six or more for Iguodala is a stretch.
He is averaging 3.8 rebounds in 31.3 minutes per game in the playoffs, and while 38 minutes is not out of the question for Iggy in this one, that would still put him only around four or five. His rebounding rate in the postseason is only 6.4 percent, which is lower than his rebounding rate last postseason, and his regular season rate from this season. Don’t be fooled by his big rebounding total in Game 1. He should be back to around four or five tonight.
NBA Pick: UNDER 5.5 (-180)
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline