Free NBA Picks: Play Local San Antonio Against Visiting Heat

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, March 23, 2016 3:50 PM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 23, 2016 3:50 PM UTC

The Miami Heat are underdogs on the NBA odds when they travel to San Antonio for their game against the Spurs, and for good reason.

The Miami Heat travel from New Orleans to San Antonio for this 8:35 ET tipoff against the San Antonio Spurs.  Last night, Miami obeyed my command with their double digit win against the Pelicans.  Tonight, however, they are in the wrong place at the wrong time.  These teams have met 3 times since LeBron bid adieu to South Beach.  The results have been consistent with San Antonio scoring victories of 14, 13 and 18 points.  Each of these teams is super-surging for best playoff position down the stretch. But, the situation for tonight’s game clearly favors San Antonio.

In yesterday’s analysis, I wrote that Miami was in a good place.  Since the loss of Bosh (blood clots), Miami is now 12-5 SU.  The addition of Joe Johnson has clearly made up for that loss.  Last night, Johnson provided an all-around game with 8 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds.  Wade (25/7), Dragic (21/8) and Whiteside (24/14), along with Stoudemire (16/9) provided the fire power.  

Miami has now scored 100 or more points in their last 11 games, roughly correlating to the presence of Johnson on the floor.  In the month of March, the offense is averaging over 113 PPG.  Johnson continues to shoot near 60% from the field, while opening up opportunities for others.  With the victory, Miami sits alone in 3rd place in the East at 41-29 SU, a ½ game ahead of Atlanta, Boston and Charlotte.  The East is so closely bunched that Miami, although in 3rd place, is just 5 games away from NOT qualifying for the NBA playoffs.  Do not expect them to make any headway in the standings tonight.

The San Antonio Spurs had a vitally important win on Saturday night with their home victory vs. Golden St.  But, they gave it back on Monday when they fell (91-88) to the red hot Hornets.  Now, the Spurs trail Golden St. by 4 games with 12 to go (though, they do face them twice in the last week of play). The key to the Spurs’ victory in this game will be the league’s No. 1 ranked defense, allowing just 92.3 PPG and 43.1% shooting.  That will cool off the Heat.  Note that San Antonio has won 44 consecutive victories on this court, including a (35-0) record this year.  

On Saturday night, San Antonio held the Warriors (NBA best offense which averages 115 PPG) to only 79 points on 38% from the field.  The San Antonio loss at Charlotte Monday night virtually guarantees an outstanding effort from the Spurs tonight.  They are 8-2 SU ATS, following a loss this season.  On Monday night, the Spurs led by 23 points in the first half, before scoring just 37 points in the 2nd half on 37% shooting.  It was the largest blown lead in the 19-year career of Tim Duncan.       

With the Spurs standing 8-2 ATS off a loss, 21-13 ATS as home favorite and having dominated the Heat in the last 2 years, I expect a huge bounce back effort, as they drop the record of the Miami Heat to 5-11 ATS as road dog of 4 or more points.  I invite you to put the NBA odds in your favor and join me in my NBA pick on San Antonio tonight.

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Free NBA Pick: San Antonio Spurs -11
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle Sports 

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