Free NBA Picks: Pacers Will Hang Close To A Tough Warriors Team

Charles Stark

Friday, January 22, 2016 1:25 PM GMT

It makes sense for the Golden State Warriors at home to be a big favorite on the NBA odds board. Tonight they face a really good team in my opinion in the Indiana Pacers.

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NBA Pick: Pacers +13
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

Odds Review
NBA odds makers have set the line making Indiana a +13 underdog and the total around 217. That seems about right but with a huge game coming up for the Warriors, and some good talent on Indiana, I like for the Pacers to stay within the number.  For one of my selections today I will take the points with one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference.

 

Indiana Pacers
Indiana is averaging 102.5 points per game while averaging 44.7% shooting from the field, and allowing 99.5 points per game on 44% shooting from the field. They are hovering around 50% on point spreads going 22-20 against the spread overall and 11-12 on the road.  Earlier in the season at home they hung with Golden State losing by eight points, but it seems the Warriors have hit another gear. Still, Indiana I believe has caught Golden State in a decent spot just coming back from a road trip and having the biggest game of the year for them coming up on Monday. The Pacers have been inconsistent in their last several games but overall on the year they are playing good basketball and rank offensively as one of the better teams in the East. Currently they average 48.5% on their two point shots and 35.1% from beyond the arc which rank 12th and 16th respectively. Defensively they are one of the best teams in the league and defend the perimeter as well as anyone allowing opponents just 32.8% from beyond the arc which ranks sixth in the league. On this side of the ball they also rank in the top ten in opponent shooting efficiency and opponent effective field goal percentage. As well, they allow just 20.2 assists per game which ranks fourth in the league. This Pacers team is well coached and has some solid players led by star Paul George, and although they have a monumental task in hanging with the Warriors, they have the talent to do just that.

 

Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors are averaging 114.6 points per game while shooting 48.7% from the field, and allowing 102.4 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field. Against the spread this year they have been phenomenal going 26-16-1 overall but only 10-9 at home because they tend to get overvalued in their house. Offensively they are the best in the league and they rank first in scoring, three point shooting percentage, shooting efficiency, assists, and effective field goal percentage. On top of that, they rank second in overall shooting percentage and two point shooting percentage. Defensively they are starting to get more noticed and statistically they are very good ranking first in opponent three point shooting percentage, second in opponent effective field-goal percentage, and third in both opponent shooting percentage and opponent shooting efficiency. Whenever I have a chance to go against Golden State it is never a lighthearted decision because they are so extremely good. However, I believe this is too many points given this particular spot, so I will take the points with some value in backing Indiana.

It is never easy to go against an offensive machine like the Warriors, but with San Antonio coming up on Monday this a good game to grab some value on a very good Indiana team. This reminds me a bit of last week when we took Detroit plus the points against Golden State when Cleveland was looming on the schedule for them. This is a similar spot so for one of your NBA picks I recommend grabbing the points on the Pacers to keep this game to single digits.