Free NBA Picks the 'Over' for Spurs vs. Suns

Jordan Sharp

Friday, October 31, 2014 1:17 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 31, 2014 1:17 PM UTC

The first week of NBA action continues Friday night with a shorter card of action. There are several more NBA Odds tomorrow, however tonight there are still some great values. One of those NBA Picks should be on the Spurs and Suns.

Spurs Squeak By
The Spurs barely escaped the improved Mavs on Wednesday night, and now they have almost an equally tough challenge as they head into Phoenix to play the Suns. The NBA odds have the Suns as +1 ½ underdogs at home, with a total of 205 or 206 points depending on which sportsbook you’re shopping at.

With the Suns new roster, they will surely be in contention for a playoff spot in the West. While it remains to be seen whether or not they will actually get into the playoffs, they will be right there at the end of the season. They were able to dominate the Lakers on Wednesday night, however the Spurs will obviously bring a much tougher game to the Suns.

The key will be in the backcourt, and of course, defending Tim Duncan. If the Suns can keep Duncan off of the offensive glass, they will have a chance to win. However the Suns’ front court is nothing to get excited about, so the old veteran might have his way with the young team. In the backcourt, the battle between stopping the other team’s point guard might be the key to who wins this game.

Tony Parker once again led the way two nights ago with 23 points, and if the Suns can’t slow down both Parker and Duncan, they have very little chance of winning. Enter Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe is playing his first action is almost a year after getting hurt and missing time last season, however now back and healthy, he is going to play a big role in trying to slow down Parker tonight. If he can keep Parker from controlling the paint and breaking down the Suns’ defense, the Suns have a chance here.


The Sharp Pick
Last season the Phoenix Suns split their regular season meetings with one another 2-2 ATS. The Spurs ended up taking three of the four games SU, but in the two games in Phoenix, the Suns were both 1-1 ATS and SU. Now with a deeper bench and another year of experience, the Suns should keep the game close for the most part.

However with the close spread, I’m not sure the spread is the best play tonight. Early in the season a lot of things can go much differential than projections. However the low total of 20-5 gives us a window for safer value. I don’t think the Spurs are going to be able to slow down the Suns’ backcourt, and I doubt they are going to be able to slow down Parker and Duncan on the other side.

When considering your NBA picks keep in mind that the over is 5-2 for the Suns in their last seven games against a team with a winning record, and for the Spurs, the over is 9-4 in their last 13 games on two days rest. In the end this should be a faster game if the Suns get their way, and I see it leading to the over cashing.

Free NBA Picks: OVER 206 at 5Dimes 

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