Free NBA Picks 'Over' for Clippers vs. Lakers

Jordan Sharp

Friday, October 31, 2014 3:14 PM GMT

Kobe Bryant’s return to the court this year has not gone as plan, and the Lakers look like a lost cause already. Tonight their NBA Odds don’t get any easier, as they will play the Clippers. The NBA Odds have the Clippers as -11 favorites, with a total of 208 ½. 

Clippers edge injured Thunder squad
Despite being without Kevin Durant and losing Russell Westbrook to a broken hand during the game, the Clippers only beat the Thunder by three points yesterday in LA. The Clippers gave up 28 4th quarter points to a rag-tag Thunder squad, and even though the Lakers don’t pose as big of a threat, compared to the Thunder team that finished the game, it’s not that much worse.

The Los Angeles Laker have already dealt with an important injury this season after losing Julius Randle to a broken leg, subsequently ending his season. Newly acquired Carlos Boozer will have to take over a bulk of the minutes at power forward for the Lakers, and he will have his hands full tonight trying to slow down Blake Griffin.

One of the main factors of this game will be the play of the Clippers on the second half of a back to back, and how they defend Kobe Bryant. Since last night’s game was in LA, and since it’s very early in the season, the Clippers likely won’t be too wiped out after their tough game 24 hours prior. However defending Bryant may be the toughest challenge. While they could easily shade coverage over to him and even double team Kobe, the Clippers would leave themselves vulnerable at other positions. They don’t really have much to defend Kobe with one-on-one, so it will surely be a team effort. While this may affect the spread some in this game, like have been doing a lot early this season, I think the total is a much safer play.

 

The Sharp Pick
Last season the Clippers dominated the Lakers in every game. They were 3-1 SU and ATS against their Staples Center rivals, winning the final three games of the season by an average margin of victory of 36 points. However with Bryant back, it’s unlikely that the Lakers will lose by that much, especially after the Clippers’ tough game last night.

However the total of 208 ½ might be a good play, especially considering it has been dropping from 210, where it opened. The over is 10-2 in the Lakers’ last 12 games against a team with a winning record, and in their last 11 games playing on no rest, the Clippers have cashed the over in nine of those games.

Look for Bryant to have another 25-30 point game and the over to be the best bet for tonight’s late game. The Clippers and Lakers will want to run at a fast pace, and after last night’s struggles, the Clippers will want to score as much as possible against this lesser Lakers team. Take the over and add it to your NBA picks tonight.

Free NBA Pick: OVER 209 at 5Dimes

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