Free NBA picks: Odds Lines Backing Jazz Over Warriors In Western Conference Shutdown

Charles Stark

Wednesday, March 30, 2016 2:39 PM GMT

Wednesday, Mar. 30, 2016 2:39 PM GMT

The Jazz thumped the Lakers the other night, but tonight things are more difficult as they take on the Warriors. Can Utah find a way to pull out a victory against the league's winningest team?

Odd makers have come out making Utah a +5 underdog like at Pinnacle Sports -105.  For one of my NBA picks I am going to back the Jazz plus the points against the Warriors. Utah is playing really well right now and is catching Golden State on the second leg of a back to back.

 

Utah Jazz
Utah ranks second in the NBA in opponent field goals attempted per game which has led them to also rank second in opponent points per game. On the season Utah allows opponents just 96.1 points per game and rank first in the NBA allowing just 35.6 field goals made per game. A lot of the reason for their strong defensive statistics is the fact that they rank last in the NBA in pace putting up just 80.5 field goal attempts per game. As well, Utah allows just 21.7 three point attempts per game which ranks fourth in the league with opponents making 7.8 of those which ranks ninth.

Offensively there is not a lot to mention but they do hit 35.8% from beyond the arc which ranks ninth in the NBA and they rank right in the middle of the league in both shooting efficiency and effective field-goal percentage. Of course most of those the statistics you can throw out the window since they are taking on Golden State tonight. The last game these two met at Golden State the Warriors lit them up shooting 57% from the floor and over 43% from distance. Utah has been rolling right now and I believe they will keep Golden State too much more respectable numbers tonight, especially if they can control the pace at home.

 

Golden State Warriors
Golden State averages 115.5 points per game which ranks first in the NBA and they rank either first or second in the league in all of the most important offensive categories. After Golden State lost at San Antonio they got right back on track winning four straight. I could go on and on about how good this team is offensively so I will just keep it simple, they are arguably the best offensive team of all time. On the other side of the ball, where they are starting to get some recognition, Golden State ranks third, fourth, and fifth in opponent overall shooting percentage, opponent three point shooting percentage, and opponent shooting efficiency.

One issue that may help Utah tonight is the fact that Golden State does allow opponents to get up a lot of shots as opponents attempt 89.5 field goals per game which ranks second to last in the NBA and this aspect is widely reflected in the NBA odds lines. Although this hasn't been an issue in their three previous matchups with Golden State coming off a back to back this might come into play as a have to travel to Utah. If the Jazz are going to pull off the upset this is a good spot to do so with Golden State coming off a back to back and Utah playing its best basketball of the season.

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Free NBA Pick: Jazz +5 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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