Free NBA Picks: Mavs' Offensive Game To Stay Close With Thunder

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, January 13, 2016 4:15 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2016 4:15 PM UTC

After a brutal overtime game against the Cavaliers last night, the Mavs head into Oklahoma City tonight to play the Thunder. The NBA Odds have OKC as -10 favorites, with a total of 208. 

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NBA Pick: Mavericks +10.5
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline


Back To Backs
Both of these squads played last night and since we are in the month of January, that means we likely will see some tired legs from both clubs at least once in this game here tonight. Of course the Mavs went into overtime last night against the Cavs to help us cash the over on that one, but the Thunder had a harder game than expected last night as well as they lost ATS to the Wolves who gave them all they could handle on the road last night.

Now these two teams are set to face off against one another for only the second time this season. In their first matchup, the Thunder won the game, however Dallas got the ATS win as +3½ underdogs, and now that they are +10 underdogs on the road again in this one, it might be a nice time to take points with the Mavs.

As long as Dallas doesn’t pull something like they did a few weeks ago and sit four of their starters in this game, they should be able to pull out a cover in this one. The Thunder have not been good on the second night of a back to back this season at only 2-4 ATS, and they have been even worse at home against the number. OKC is only 9-13 against the NBA odds this season when playing at home, and even worse is they are only 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

The Mavs on the other hand have been pretty good on no rest, and while the extra five minutes of basketball last night makes them a slightly worse bet tonight, they are still 6-3 ATS on the second night of a back to back, and they have covered their last two meetings against the Thunder dating back to their final matchup from last season.


The Sharp Pick
On top of Dallas’ successes on no rest this season, they have been a solid road team as well. Dallas is 12-8-1 ATS when playing away from home this season, and when playing on the road against teams in the Western Conference, the Mavs are a solid 8-4 ATS. Overall outside of Golden State and San Antonio, who are seemingly in a league by themselves this season, the Mavs have been the best Western Conference team ATS when playing conference games. Dallas is 16-7 overall ATS versus the West this season, and as +10 dogs, even after the OT loss last night the sportsbooks are undervaluing the Mavs once again.

Even though their offense has been stellar this season on a number of levels, the Thunder’s defense has faltered just a bit recently. A lot of it has to do with their pace and teams having to put up points to stay with their outstanding offense, but in their last ten games the Thunder have given up more than 107 points per game, while scoring 111 per. The Mavs have the offensive capabilities to stay with OKC on offense, and with both teams tired I don’t see a whole lot of defense being played here tonight. Look for the Mavs to keep this one within single digits tonight as the sharp NBA pick.

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