Free NBA Picks: Mavericks Wont Cover Short Spread vs. Nuggets

Joe Catalano

Monday, March 28, 2016 2:51 PM GMT

Monday, Mar. 28, 2016 2:51 PM GMT

Mavericks have a real battle on their hands as they're in the 9th spot in the Western Conf. The Mavs have a relatively easy matchup with the Nuggets. See my NBA pick inside. 

Tip-off is scheduled for Tonight at 9:00 p.m. ET at the Pepsi Center in Denver Colorado. According to the NBA odds, the Nuggets are actually a 1.5 point betting favorite and the total for the game is listed at 212 as lots of points and very little defense are expected in this game.

Dallas has really worked their way out of the playoffs, going 2-10 in their last 12 games. This game is very important and playing in the Colorado air always benefits the home team.

 

Deron Williams Out
We take a look at the injury report and D. Will will be missing a crucial game with an abdominal injury. Taking his place will be the combination of J.J. Barea and Raymond Felton. This is a Dallas team that will be a longshot to make the playoffs as Chandler Parsons is already out for the season, but Williams is replaceable and Barea and Felton have played rather well.

 

Will Injuries Play a Factor?
For the season, Barea is averaging 10.1 points and 3.9 assists in just over 21 minutes per game while Raymond Felton is averaging 9.3 points, 3.5 assists, and 3.2 rebounds in 27.3 minutes per game.

Williams had a good season until tailing off recently. Dallas is not in a hurry to rush him back as they need him at 100%. Look for Barea to be super-reliable as he's a main option at point guard and ball distributor on this club.

The Nuggets have some concerns of their own as Kenneth Faried missed his last game and is a question mark for this game.

For the season, Faried is averaging 12.9 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. The Nuggets can certainly use his defense as both of these teams allow a ton of points as the odds indicate. The injury report says “day to day”. I would expect this high-flyer to give it a go as Denver would love to play spoiler to an injury-hampered team that's looking to back door themselves into the post-season.

 

Darrell Arthur
With Faried possibly out or at least on a minutes restriction, Darrell Arthur will see all of the playing time that he wants. Arthur is coming off of a 6 point, 12 rebound performance in a 105-90 loss against CP3 and the Los Angeles Clippers . The Nuggets will gladly take similar numbers to those if Faried doesn't play. Regardless, the Nuggets are a strong team in rebounding at the power forward position.

 

Rookie Slump
While we can expect Will Barton to pick up the slack for the Nuggets as he's averaging 14.5 points coming off the bench and receiving a ton of playing time, point guard, Emmanuel Mudiay has been in the midst through a major slump.

This has been a successful season for Mudiay, but in his last 2 games, he's averaging 6.5 points on 5 of 23 from the field. Mudiay is not shy in putting up some unnecessary shots and I expect him to keep doing so in a game with no defense. Look for Dallas to capitalize off of Mudiay with their experience.

 

Matador Defense
We can say that injuries have hampered the Mavs, but let's face it, they don't play a lick of defense. In their last 5 games, they've allowed an amazing 128 points or more in 4 out of the 5 games. Now, we can see why Denver is the betting favorite.

 

Statistics Of Note:
In his last 10 games, Nowitzki is averaging 24.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game and is playing the best basketball that he's played in a couple of years as he's nearing 38 year of age.

 

Outcome
Dallas is the better team when healthy, but this is a game that the Nuggets can capitalize on. If Faried plays, it's an added plus as the Nuggets are deep up front. With such a porous defense, a college team would give the Mavs trouble at the moment. Look for the Nuggets as your NBA pick to play well here. This is a good spot for Mudiay as he likes a fast pace game.   

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Free NBA Pick:  Denver -1.5
Best Line Offered:  at Pinnacle

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