Free NBA Picks: Mavericks -10 vs. Kings

Steven Suarez

Wednesday, February 13, 2013 3:19 PM GMT

Wednesday, Feb. 13, 2013 3:19 PM GMT

Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks are double-digit favorites in the NBA odds for tonight's home game against the Kings. Have we located the best NBA betting value for this one? 

Odds Overview

You can either get a line of 10 or 10.5 depending on what NBA betting site you're skimming through. Dallas is 29-22-0 ATS this season, with Sacramento at 22-29-2 ATS.

A lot of offense and little defense is expected for tonight's game, which would explain the O/U resting as high as 209.5. The UNDER is 5-1 in the Kings' last six road contests, but the OVER is 5-1 in Dallas' previous six at home.

[gameodds]5/218311/43/us[/gameodds]

Check out Jordan Sharp's free NBA picks for this game as well.

Sacramento Kings 

A couple nights after finishing up a highly successful two-game home stand in which they topped Utah (120-109) and Houston (117-111), the Kings fell back down to earth with a 108-101 loss to Memphis on the road. 

Versus the Grizzlies, DeMarcus Cousins logged 23 points, seven boards, four assists and five steals, while Tyreke Evans had 20 points, seven rebounds and three dimes without turning the ball over once. 

The Kings won out in fast break points and points in the paint, but they were once again terrible defensively, allowing Memphis (hardly a potent offensive team) to shoot 54.7 percent overall and 46.2 percent from three. 

Sacramento was still able to come through as 11-point underdogs for backers, making it four straight matchups in which they've cashed against the spread. 

How have the Kings done on back-to-backs this season? Not too well. They're 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on zero days of rest, which is certainly not a good sign ahead of this visit to the American Airlines Center. 

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks were hoping they could take a sizable winning streak into the All-Star Break, all while finding a way to move up the Western Conference standings. They were able to start things off right with consecutive home wins over Portland and Golden State, but they couldn't get it done against Atlanta on Monday night, losing 105-101 as 5.5-point favorites. Six different Mavericks scored in double figures, led by Dirk Nowitzki and his 24 points on 8-of-14 shooting.

Dallas was beaten up on the glass (48-37) and also failed to match the Hawks' on the fast break, despite forcing 18 turnovers. The Mavericks looked on helplessly as Atlanta connected on 51.9 percent of their shots.

Despite losing straight up, it's hard to lose sight of the fact the Mavericks have been on fire at the betting window. They're 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall and are 7-2 ATS in their previous nine at home.

Dirk's conditioning and overall level of play continues to improve as well, and one would think that's only going to make Dallas better and better going forward. 

NBA Pick

Over the last two seasons, Dallas has gone 4-1 SU and ATS in five meetings with Sacramento. We're choosing the Mavericks to get another cover tonight. 

Dallas was poor defensively against Atlanta, but they should fare better against a Sacramento team that's averaging 91.6 PPG on 41.7 percent shooting on the road this season. Rick Carlisle's gang should have no trouble scoring the rock either, considering the Kings have been torched for 109.2 PPG over their last five.

The coaching showdown is also squarely in the Mavericks' favor. Give me Carlisle over Keith Smart and his mind-boggling rotation selections any day of the week. 

While it's always risky taking on a double-digit spread in the NBA, we are willing to take the risk and back the Mavericks with our NBA picks. Dallas should come out with a lot of energy right from the start and we like them to pick up a comfortable win. 

NBA Picks: Dallas Mavericks -10

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