Free NBA Picks: Lay the Points & Go 'Over' on Warriors-Raptors Clash

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 7:27 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2015 7:27 PM UTC

Warriors are off and running this season heading into tonight's battle with Toronto. Can Golden State remain unbeaten? And more importantly, can it cover near-double-digits on the NBA odds?

Raptors-Warriors Betting Odds
Most of Tuesday's NBA odds market opened Golden State at -9 over Toronto, with a total of right around 208. In the early betting most shops then bumped the Warriors a half-point, to -9.5. Anyone thinking the Raptors might pull the upset here could get a price of +450 at Pinnacle.


The Situation
Toronto (7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS) just had a two-game winning streak snapped by a 107-101 loss at Sacramento Sunday night. The Raptors led that game by eight points with just under five minutes to go, but got outscored from there 16-2, going scoreless over the last three minutes, falling outright as a two-point road favorite.

On the night, Toronto shot 44 percent from the floor and hit 15 of 31 from beyond the arc, but allowed the Kings to shoot a hot 51 percent. Saturday the Raptors beat New Orleans 100-81, covering at -10, and just before that they won at Philly 119-103, covering at -9.

Golden State (11-0 SU, 7-4 ATS), meanwhile, is still undefeated on the season, following a 107-99 overtime victory over Brooklyn Saturday. However, the Warriors could not cover at -16.

Golden State actually trailed the Nets by double-digits early, eventually tied the game on a 3-pointer with six seconds left, survived a Nets in-bound play under the bucket at the regulation buzzer, then scored the first 10 points of the OT to take control.

On the night, the Warriors shot just 44 percent from the floor, a very poor performance for them, and committed 15 turnovers. Prior to that, though, Golden State had covered three spreads in a row, at -10 at Minnesota, -7 at Memphis and -12 over Detroit.


Raptors-Warriors Recent Encounters
Golden State has taken eight of the last 10 meetings with Toronto, including both games last season, by scores of 126-105 and 113-89. The Warriors covered that first meeting at -5, once leading by 23 points, and the second meeting at -2, once leading by 41.

Golden State also outshot the Raptors in those two games, combined by a 51-44 percent margin. Finally, while that first meeting played OVER a total of 217, the second meeting played UNDER 213.


Raptors-Warriors Totals Trends
Both these teams are 7-4 on the UNDERS this season; Toronto games are averaging 199 total points, while Golden State games are averaging 212 points. Obviously, the Warriors have been playing against some higher totals than the Raptors.


Injury Update
Golden State G Klay Thompson (15 PPG) missed Saturday's game with a stiff back, but reports indicate he'll probably play tonight. Also, F Draymon Green (12 PPG, eight RPG) is said to be dealing with an illness, and is iffy for this game.


Golden State didn't seem to have too much trouble with Toronto last season, winning two meetings by an average score of 120-97, and the Warriors will probably shoot a little better than they did the other night against Brooklyn, with Thompson back in action. So even while the spread on this game is probably a bucket too much, we'll go with Golden State on the side for our NBA picks of the night. As for the total, we're thinking that, with a little help from some garbage time, this game should play OVER.

Free NBA Picks: Warriors -9.5 and OVER 208 at Heritage

comment here