Free NBA Picks: Kings Will Pull out of Their Road Slump vs. Raptors

Darin Zank

Sunday, December 20, 2015 5:04 PM UTC

Sunday, Dec. 20, 2015 5:04 PM UTC

Sacramento is playing good ball as of late, but still struggling on the road, going 5-6 against the NBA odds on the hotel circuit this season. Can the Kings turn those trends around Sunday in Toronto?

NBA Pick:Sacramento Kings ATS
Best Line Offered: +5 (-103) at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2882868, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Kings-Raptors: The Odds
Most of Sunday's NBA odds market opened Toronto at -5 over Sacramento, with a total of right around 207. In the early betting the spread was holding steady, while the total dropped to 206.

Those who think the Kings might win this game outright could get a price of +185 on the NBA moneyline at JustBet.


The Situation
Sacramento (10-16 SU, 12-14 ATS) had won three games in a row, before dropping the opener of a four-game road trip at Minnesota Friday night 99-95. The Kings trailed by 14 points early, rallied to take hold a late lead, but couldn't hold on, falling as three-point favorites.

On the night Sacramento shot 47 percent from the field, but allowed the Timberwolves to shoot 48 percent and got outrebounded 54-38.

Prior to that, though, the Kings had beaten Utah, New York and Houston back-to-back-back, shooting better than 50 percent from the floor against the Jazz and Rockets.

Toronto (17-11 both SU and ATS) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 108-94 victory at Miami Friday night. The Raptors trailed the Heat by 11 in the third quarter, but outscored them from there by 25 points, taking that game outright as four-point dogs.

Toronto shot 51 percent from the floor Friday, outrebounded Miami 46-38 and won the turnover battle 13-7.

The Raptors had won four games in a row, before losing at Indiana Monday 106-90 and at Charlotte in overtime Thursday 109-99.


Kings-Raptors Recent History
This is the second meeting between these teams this season, following the Kings' 107-101 victory in Sacramento last month. That game was close throughout, but the Kings finished with an 18-4 run, scoring the last seven points, to pull off the short upset as two-point home dogs.

On the night Sacramento shot 51 percent from the floor, while Toronto shot 44 percent.

Also, that game just squeezed UNDER a total of 209, even though the teams combined to shoot 25-for-56 from 3-point land.

Last year the Raptors swept the two games from the Kings, by scores of 117-109 and 119-102, covering at -3 and -6. Also, both those games played OVER totals of 204 and 209.


Kings-Raptors Totals Trends
Sacramento is 14-12 on the UNDERS this season, even though Kings games have averaged a healthy 212 points.

Toronto is 16-12 on the UNDERS, as Raptors games have averaged 196 points.


Injury Update
Toronto is a little depleted at the moment, with both DeMarre Carroll (12 PPG, five RPG) and Jonas Valanciunas (13 PPG, nine RPG) out with ailments.


Final Analysis
Toronto's coming off a nice second-half finish at Miami, while Sacramento came up short last time out at Minnesota. But reversal-of-fortune is an everyday occurrence in the Association. The Raptors hold several statistical advantages, but they're also a little banged up in the front-court, which doesn't bode well going up against DeMarcus Cousins. We'll add the Kings, plus the points, to our free NBA picks for Sunday. Also, these teams played two OVERS last year, and their meeting last month probably should have played OVER, too.

comment here