Free NBA Picks: Kings vs. Spurs

Darin Zank

Friday, March 1, 2013 4:06 PM GMT

The San Antonio Spurs let one get away last time out to a demonstrably lesser opponent, so they're likely to be breathing a little fire when they host the Sacramento Kings Friday night (8:30 pm ET).

San Antonio is a pretty clear favorite to win this game, but can they cover two touchdowns, or can Sacramento, which has shot the lights out its last two games, pull an upset, or at least keep this one close?

Read on for the answers to those questions and our free NBA picks for this matchup.

The Betting Line

Most online sportsbooks opened this game with San Antonio favored by 14.5 points, with the OVER/UNDER offered at 212. And both those numbers had held fairly steady in the early betting.

[gameodds]5/219713/43/us[/gameodds]

Kings-Spurs Game Set-Up

San Antonio, for the most part, has rolled through this season so far, and owns the best record in the league. But the Spurs have actually lost two of their last three games. One week ago they had a five-game winning streak snapped in an overtime loss at Golden State. Then after a 97-87 victory at Phoenix Sunday they came home Wednesday night and blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead before losing in overtime to those same Suns 105-101.

San Antonio shot just 43 percent from the floor Wednesday, committed 17 turnovers and scored one point in the OT in losing outright as 16-point favorites.

Nonetheless, the Spurs lead the Southwest Division by 5.5 games over second-place Memphis, and the Western Conference by two games over second-place Oklahoma City.

Sacramento, meanwhile, just snapped a six-game losing streak with a 125-101 victory at Orlando Wednesday. The Kings shot 55 percent from the floor vs. the Magic, a game after shooting 52 percent in a 141-129 double-overtime loss at Miami Tuesday.

So Sacramento, at 20-39, is tied for last place in the West.

Kings-Spurs By the Numbers

On the season San Antonio ranks second in the league in FG shooting at 48.5 percent, fifth in 3-point shooting at 38 percent and fourth in FT shooting at 79 percent. However, the Spurs have been a little cold recently, shooting just 42 percent over their last three games.

San Antonio also ranks sixth in FG defense, holding opponents to just under 44 percent from the field.

Sacramento ranks 21st in FG shooting at 44 percent, ninth in 3-point marksmanship at 37 percent and 14th in FT shooting at 76 percent. But the Kings also rank 29th in FG defense, allowing opponents to shoot 47 percent, and they're getting out-rebounded by about four boards per game.

Kings-Spurs Recent History

San Antonio has beaten Sacramento four times in a row, including twice already this season. The Spurs beat the Kings 97-86 back on Nov. 9, and 108-102 on Feb. 19, both games being played in Sacramento. San Antonio shot a combined 47 percent from the field those two games, while holding the Kings to just 36 percent shooting.

But Sacramento actually played the Spurs fairly tough both meetings this season; the Kings only trailed by a point going into the fourth quarter in the first game before fading late, then never let San Antonio get too far out front in the second game and covered the spread as nine-point dogs.

Kings-Spurs Betting Trends

Sacramento is 6-26 SU and 14-18 ATS on the road this season.

The Kings are also 35-22 on the OVER/UNDERS, as their games have averaged 203 total points. Also, eight of Sacramento's last nine games have played OVER on the totals.

San Antonio is 22-3 SU and 13-10 ATS at home this season.

The Spurs are also 27-30 on the totals, as their games have averaged 200 points. 

Kings-Spurs Free NBA Pick for Friday 

San Antonio is probably a little angry after blowing that game Wednesday night, and might be looking to take that out on somebody. Sacramento, meanwhile, after shooting better than 50 percent its last two games, probably won't be able to pull that trick against the Spurs. So while two touchdowns is a lot for the NBA odds makers to ask for, we'll go with San Antonio at the -14.5 points offered at Matchbook. We also like the UNDER 212.5 points offered at Bookmaker.

NBA Picks: Spurs -14.5 and Under 212.5 at Bookmaker