Free NBA Picks: Hawks & Sixers To Stay 'Under' In Philadelphia

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, January 7, 2016 4:08 PM GMT

The Philadelphia 76ers come off their fourth win of the year, but they had weak offensive efforts after the first three wins and may not score enough to prevent an ‘under’ vs. Atlanta.

 

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NBA Pick: Under 207
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

It could be a relatively low scoring game Thursday night between the worst team in the NBA record-wise and a slumping team when the Atlanta Hawks (21-15, 17-18 ATS), losers of three of their last four games, pay a visit to the league-worst Philadelphia 76ers (4-33, 15-21-1 ATS) at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA at 7:05 ET in a game available on Comcast SportsNet.

The posted total at Bookmaker is 205½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.

 

Lowly Sixers with Better Record the Last Four Games
While the Hawks have lost three of their last four games, the 76ers have actually accumulated half of their win total for the entire season while going 2-2 over that same four-game span, and they were the winning NBA picks here at home for just the second time all year in their last game 109-99 over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday.

The Hawks meanwhile just lost both ends of a home-and-home series vs. the Knicks, losing in New York 111-97 on Sunday and then at home in Atlanta 107-101 Tuesday despite being the NBA odds favorite in both of those games. Remember that the Hawks did not lose three straight games until March while finishing with the best record in the Eastern Conference last season, but they are now trying to avoid their third three-game skid already this year.

 

Rarely Have Back-to-Back Good Offensive Games
Yes, the Sixers put up 109 points in their victory on Monday, but that may actually work against them here as this is an offensively challenged team that rarely pieces together good offensive outputs. After all, Philadelphia is dead last in the NBA in scoring at 92.9 points per game, second to last in field goal percentage at 42.4 percent and 28th (or third to last) in three-point shooting at only 31.6 percent.

Also, the 76ers apparently cannot stand prosperity as they followed up each of their first three wins this season with offensive duds scoring 84, 91 and 87 points respectively, and we expect more of the same here after uncharacteristically shooting a season-high 55.2 percent vs. the Timberwolves while also setting a season-high with 48 field goals made. That marked the first time the Sixers shot at least 55 percent and made at least 48 field goals since 2011!

Expect a descent back to planet earth tonight vs. an Atlanta defense that is allowing a 44.9 percent success rate on field goal attempts this year.

 

Hawks Regressing as Expected
The Hawks were expected to regress this season after probably overachieving by winning a franchise record 60 games while claiming that top seed in the East last year, and that regression seems to have come to pass. Granted Atlanta is still averaging a decent 101.8 points per game to rank 12th in the league in scoring, but that would probably not be enough to push this game ‘over’ this fairly big total if the 76ers continue their struggling offensive pattern.

Also the Atlanta three-point shooting is way down this year after the Hawks were among the league leaders from beyond the arc last season at 38.0 percent with Kyle Korver leading the way at 49.2 percent. However, Korver is all the way down to 35.6 percent this season and that has contributed to the team dropping to only 34.1 percent on three-point attempts overall to rank 20th in the league.

Furthermore, the Atlanta offense has really not performed that well in three of the last four games, with the outlier being scoring 121 points in the lone win during this span in a fast-paced game vs. the defenseless Rockets in Houston. The Hawks averaged only 95.0 points in the last three losses however.

 

Trending the ‘under’
Finally, in support of what we said earlier about Philadelphia usually struggling offensively following promising efforts, consider that the ‘under’ is 22-7-1 in the 76ers’ last 30 games following a straight up win and 6-2 in their last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The ‘under’ is also 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these teams.

Look for more of the same here with this seemingly inflated posted total, so go ‘under’ when Atlanta visits Philadelphia on Thursday.