Free NBA Picks: Expect Rapid Fire Tempo in Celtics vs. Warriors Friday Matchup

Jordan Sharp

Friday, April 1, 2016 9:37 PM GMT

Friday, Apr. 1, 2016 9:37 PM GMT

After losing last night to the Portland Trail Blazers, the Celtics head into Oakland to play the Warriors on the second night of a back to back. The NBA Odds have the Warriors as -12 fav.

Crowder Comeback
After missing eight games with a badly sprained ankle, Jae Crowder made his return last night in Portland and played 35 minutes for the Celtics. He was not expected to play in the second night of a back-to-back tonight against the Warriors, but after the game he expressed some optimism that he could be able to play as long as his ankle didn’t swell up too bad.

If Crowder can play tonight, the Celtics could use him against the Warriors. Not only is he one of the more undervalued players on the Celtics, he is very important for the C’s on both offense and defense. On top of that, he could maker the difference for our play tonight on this game. While the spread is intriguing with the Celtics taking the points tonight if Crowder plays, it’s not a risk I’m willing to take with Boston playing on no rest.

However, Boston has been a great play on the over since the All Star Break. Even though they are only 7-10 cashing the over on no rest overall this season, as I say time and time again, not all back to backs are made the same. Since the All Star Break, when back to backs start to take more of a toll on tired teams, the C’s are 3-1 cashing the over. On top of that, Boston is 5-3 cashing the over this season when playing on the road on no rest.

This is important tonight against the Warriors, one of the fastest paced teams in the league. Both of these teams play at very fast paces, and while they are both good Defensive Rating teams, the C’s DRtg drops a lot playing on the road compared to at home. Boston is the second best team in the league this season in DRtg when playing at home, but they fall substantially when playing on the road.

 

The Sharp Pick
On top of that in their last four games on no rest, Boston has been horrific on defense. They have given up nearly 118 points per game, while scoring over 110 in those four games. It has been similar results for them when they play on the road on no rest this season, as they have given up an average of 108 points per game in those eight games, and the over is 5-3.

The Warriors have been playing less efficiently on offense lately, but with the way Boston plays fast and loose on defense on the road and on back to backs, the Dubs should have no problem scoring the ball on them tonight.

Furthermore, if Crowder is able to play, while that does help the C’s defense, it helps their offense more. Boston Offensive Rating goes from 108.8 with Crowder on the court, to 103 when he is off.

Golden State’s offense has slowed down some at home, but they are still scoring close to 116 points per game at home, and I think they get all of that tonight, and maybe even more. Take the over on the NBA odds boards and add it to your NBA picks for Friday night.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2883596, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,92,238,169,19], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NBA Pick: OVER 222
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

comment here