Free NBA Picks: Expect Heat -3.5 To Burn The Bucks

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, March 9, 2016 4:12 PM GMT

With roughly 20 games remaining in the NBA regular season for most teams, it is time to begin to look at the super- surgers vs. towel-tossers. See today's NBA pick here. 

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
All of these periods of time, at approximately the 75% point in the season, are when teams, who are super surging toward post-season play, play with passion and intensity while the towel-tossers, who have slipped by the wayside and are notably below .500, have no chance for a post-season party invitation. Such is the case in this matchup today when the super-surging Miami Heat visit the towel-tossing Milwaukee Bucks.  

At 8:00 pm ET this evening, the Miami Heat travel to Milwaukee on a positive uptick. At 37-26 SU, Miami is looking to fend off Atlanta for the all-important 4th seed in the Eastern Conference playoff queue. Currently, the Heat trail Boston by just ½ game for the 3rd spot. At 26-38 SU, Milwaukee has come to the realization, that there will be no post-season party. They are 7 games behind Chicago for the 8th spot and would need to leap-frog 4 teams to get an invite to the playoff party.  

The Bucks are playing like a team who understands their fate. They are recently 7-13 SU and just 2-5 SU ATS on their home court. These two teams have split their meetings this season with the road team prevailing outright in each of the games. The Bucks have some solid young talent in Parker, Middleton and Antetokounmpo. But, it has yet to gel, as they have shot less than 39% in consecutive defeats to OKC and Chicago. It won’t get any better tonight!  

 

Betting Analysis
With the knowledge that Chris Bosh (blood clots) would most likely be lost for the season, the Heat made a brilliant move in acquiring veteran, Joe Johnson. Since his acquisition, Johnson has averaged 14 PPG on 60% shooting. The Heat have won all 5 games and covered 8 of 10 of late. Miami is also a solid road team at 16-14 SU (one of only 8 NBA teams with a winning road record) and have covered 8 of 10 recently on the road.  

Rounding out this inverted home/road dichotomy is the fact that Miami is 10-2 ATS as road chalk this year. Key interior force, Whiteside, missed recent games with a stomach illness. But, he is listed as probable for tonight. Even though Miami is 6-3 SU without Whiteside, his averages of 18/15 the last 9 games will be welcomed.

I invite you to put the NBA odds boards in your favor and join me in my NBA Picks on the Miami Heat tonight. 

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NBA Pick: Miami Heat -3.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes