Free NBA Picks: Cousins Missing From Kings Lineup Gives Heat The Betting Edge

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, April 1, 2016 3:05 PM GMT

The Miami Heat visit the Sacramento Kings at Sleep Train Arena for this 10:05 ET tip on Friday, April 1st. Sacramento is just 17-20 SU on this court, while Miami is an 18-18 SU road team. 

Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings
 When these two met in Miami this season, the Heat emerged with a 116-109 victory. That win pushed the Miami record in this series to 21-2 SU. They have also covered 5/6 recent games at this site.

A quick look at the standings, finds this to be one of our super-surgers vs. towel-tossers. At 30-45 SU, the Kings are in 11th place in the West and will miss the playoffs, yet again this year. Conversely, the Miami Heat are in a dog fight for the 3rd and 4th seeds in the East (1st round home court) with Atlanta, Charlotte and Boston. Only 1 game in the loss column separates those 4 teams.

Sacramento will suit up tonight without their best player, Cousins, who was suspended for this game following his 16th technical of the year (an automatic suspension) in the closing seconds of the 120-111 home victory vs. Washington. But Sleep Train Arena has not been kind to the Kings in this role. Sacramento is just 1-9 ATS on this court as a home dog of 4 or more points. Sacramento is also just 2-10 SU in games which Cousins does not play. Tonight, Sacramento will be facing a focused Miami team.

Not only is Miami motivated by their place in the standings, but they will also be very intense following their 102-100 embarrassing loss to the Lakers in LA on Wednesday night as double digit favorite. But, Miami has been one of the more resilient teams in the NBA this season, posting a record of 18-11 ATS following a defeat, pushing their recent record in that role to 44-30 ATS. Miami has also succeeded in this pointspread role this season. The Heat currently stand 12-4 ATS as road chalk this year, including a mark of 6-1 ATS when laying 4 or more points.

In a classic setup of super-surger vs. towel-tosser, which finds Miami playing off a loss and Sacramento playing off a win, we can only jump on board a firmly focused Miami team, who has shown themselves to be resilient once again this season, has shined brightly in this pointspread role and has dominated this opponent for the last decade. Without Cousins in the lineup, the Kings could toss the towel early. I invite you to put the NBA odds  in your favor and join me in my NBA pick on the Miami Heat tonight.   

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Free NBA Pick: Miami -8
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes