Even though the Clippers are Pacific champs and locked into the 4th seed, they could still not have home court advantage.
They control their own fate tonight, and they will know what they have to do by the time 10:30 EST rolls around. If the Clippers win, they will have home court against Memphis in the first round. However if Memphis wins tonight and the Clippers get beat by the Kings, the Clippers will be heading to Memphis this weekend, even though they will technically be the higher seed.
Take a look at our daily NBA Odds & Betting Lines report.
The Grizzlies play the Jazz tonight in a game that you know they will be trying to win, and that game is at 8:00 PM EST. If the Jazz are winning the game by the time tipoff rolls around, we could see the Clippers rest some of their guys, because they hold the tiebreaker over Memphis.
I mentioned it wrong in the video, because the Nuggets own the tiebreaker right above the Clippers. So although they could have the same record as the Nuggets tonight, Denver owns the tiebreaker over LA and the Clippers can’t move up any even if they win tonight.
Anyways, with all the outside craziness, that puts the spread off limits unless you want to be a wise guy and lay the +6 ½ with Sacramento at home and hope Chris Paul doesn’t play. The Clippers did play last night, so there is a chance they do rest, but I think the Grizzlies will force them to win.
I am instead focusing on the total, which has dropped to 207 ½ from 209 where it opened. I think the Clippers will play to win this game, but mostly because they have to. The over seems like it has become good value, but wait until closer to tipoff, because you might get a better price. I am personally waiting until tipoff to see if the NBA odds drop another point or two.
If the Clippers are in a situation where it’s 10 PM EST and they could rest without losing home court, I think they would do it. That would put the betting world in a twist if they announced that so close to tipoff, but they could end up just playing them some in the first half and not in the second if it falls like that. Either way, whether the total is where it sits now, or if it drops significantly because the hypothetical I just went through comes true, I still like the over. Players resting typically leads to higher scores.
If we can predict what will happen in the early game, this game could not only be a great value for your NBA picks pregame, but during the game as well. These are all pretty farfetched situations, but anything is possible on the last night of the NBA regular season. If the Clippers get a big lead, they could sit their guys out in the 2nd half, which would make in game betting on this one valuable as well.
My NBA Pick: OVER 207 ½ (wait until tipoff to get potentially better number)
For more free plays, check out my NBA Picks of the Day article.