Free NBA Picks: Celtics/Warriors ATS & Total Plays

Matthew Jordan

Saturday, January 24, 2015 7:05 PM GMT

The best single-season home record in NBA history was 40-1 by the 1985-86 Boston Celtics. The current C's can assure that record stays safe with an upset in Golden State on Sunday. The Warriors opened as 16.5-point favorites on BetOnline's NBA odds.

Celtics on Two-Game Winning Streak
The Celtics (15-26) are in the midst of a six-game road trip through the Western Conference. It started with a nine-point loss at the L.A. Clippers, but Boston has rallied with two straight wins as an underdog: 90-89 at Portland on Thursday (on an Evan Turner game-winning 3-pointer) and 100-99 at Denver on Friday. The Celtics did get a huge break in both games as the Blazers were without injured All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge, while the Nuggets were without their best player, point guard Ty Lawson (personal reasons following a DUI arrest). Denver's Jameer Nelson, acquired from Boston in a trade recently missed a potential winning jumper at the buzzer.

The Celtics are in full tank mode, having already traded Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green and then Nelson, really acquiring little of present-day value in return. For example, Boston already dealt one of the key pieces in the Rondo trade, Brandan Wright. It immediately bought out Nate Robinson, acquired in the Nelson trade. And the team is likely to buyout Tayshaun Prince, acquired in the Green trade. Those deals were all about acquiring draft picks, and the C's have boatloads of them over the next few years. So in a way those two close wins probably bother GM Danny Ainge, who has to rebuild through the draft and would like a high lottery pick this summer.

Boston played without second-year forward Kelly Olynyk in Denver as he sprained his right ankle in the Blazers game. He will not play here or on the rest of the road trip. The 7-footer from Gonzaga averages 11.1 points and 5.4 rebounds.

The Celtics are 21-20 against the NBA betting spread and 21-19-1 'over/under.'

 

Warriors +220 Western Conference Favorites
Golden State (35-6) continues to roll along, winning four straight and 12 of 13, reaching triple digits in all of them. In fact, during the four-game run, the Warriors haven't scored less than 122 points. In Friday's 126-101 home win over Sacramento, Klay Thompson went ballistic. He set an NBA record for scoring in a quarter with 37 points in the third and finished with a career-high 52. In that amazing quarter, Thompson was 13-for-13 overall and 9-for-9 from 3-point range. The 13 field goals tied an NBA record for a quarter. Thompson shot 73 percent overall from 3-point range, the best ever by a player with at least 15 3-point attempts in a game. The Warriors have to be gleeful they didn't trade that guy for Kevin Love.

Thompson isn't even the team's best player -- that would be Steph Curry, who is the NBA MVP favorite now at sportsbooks. He had only 10 points against the Kings but obviously was deferring to Thompson for at least one quarter. Curry did finish with 11 assists, his second straight game with at least 10. He got the most votes for the NBA All-Star Game, a modest surprise, and will star for the West, which will be coached by Golden State's Steve Kerr. At 35-13, the Warriors already have tied the franchise record for wins before the ASG so obviously that mark will be shattered.

The Warriors have won a franchise-record 18 straight games, most of them blowouts, and are 20-1 at Oracle Arena. They are 28-12-1 against the spread this season overall and 20-21 'over/under.'

 

Last Season
These teams haven't met yet this year, and last season Golden State was 2-0 against Boston. The Warriors won 99-97 at home on a Curry go-ahead jumper with 2.1 seconds left; this should enlighten you when looking over the NBA odds. Boston's Gerald Wallace missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer; Wallace is still on the team but rarely plays. Golden State won the game in Boston 108-88 in the second of a back-to-back for the Warriors. Golden State scored the first six points and never trailed. At the time, it was Boston's worst home loss since March 10, 2010. Jared Sullinger led Boston in averaging 16.0 points and 7.5 rebounds in the two meetings. Thompson led the Warriors in averaging 17.5 points, while Curry was somewhat quiet in averaging 16.5 points.

NBA Free Picks:  The Warriors certainly win, but that's too big a number. For your NBA picks, take the points and for sure the 'over' 216.5 -- like the 'over' play more than the side. Golden State is 5-0 ATS in its past five at home vs. teams with a losing road record. The 'over' is 4-1 in the Warriors' past five overall.