Free NBA Picks: Cavaliers Will Win But Lakers Will Cover +16

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, February 10, 2016 7:36 PM GMT

The Lakers take on the Cavaliers in a mismatch of epic proportions on the NBA odds board. Can Los Angeles defy the NBA odds at the expense of high-flying Cavaliers? 

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NBA Picks: Lakers +16 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Los Angeles Lakers (11-43)
Los Angeles Lakers are riding a two-game losing into this massive clash on the day’s NBA card, a run of form that doesn’t augur well. Indeed, odds makers have rolled out a double-digit spread for this game with the Lakers on the wrong side of the line.

NBA Odds makers opened this game on 15.5-point spread, a double-digit spread more familiar in college hoops rather than top-flight basketball. But that’s how bad the Lakers have been this season as evince by their woeful 11-43 SU mark, which includes a 6-18 mark at home and a 5-25 mark on the road. Wins have been hard to come by, nowhere more so than on the road with five in 30 outings. Yikes.

Most recently, the Lakers have lost back-to-back games on the road: to San Antonio 106-102 and to Indiana 89-87. Both those losses were surprisingly close despite the hefty +16.5 and +12.5 spreads trading respectively and saw them improve to four straight covers in their last four games that are comprised of a 2-2 SU mark.

In spite of those recent results, the Lakers are priced in similar far flung range for their date with the Cavaliers in Cleveland. That’s partly down to the fact that they strike an unconvincing pose behind a 2-8 SU mark in their last ten games and a 3-12 SU mark in their last 15 games.

That said, the Lakers are 25-29 versus the spread this season, despite boasting a 9.6-point losing margin and a negative 1.1-point differential versus the spread. As the away team, they are 14-16 ATS with an 11.4-point differential versus the spread and a negative 1-point differential versus the spread.

 

Cleveland Cavaliers (37-14)
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 37-14 going into tonight’s clash with the hapless Lakers and sat atop the Eastern Conference with a two-game advantage on the surging Toronto Raptors. On paper, this is a mismatch but it makes the win no less crucial for the Cavaliers, who are looking to sew up top seed in the Conference for the playoffs.

The Cavaliers are riding a two-game winning streak, bouncing back from back-to-back losses to Charlotte and Boston last week with a 98-84 win over New Orleans and a 120-100 win over Sacramento, both of which came at home and saw the Cavaliers cover as the -10 and -12 home chalk respectively.

Overall, the Cavaliers are 24-25-2 ATS on the season with a 5.9-point winning margin and a negative 0.6-point differential versus the spread. As home favorites, they are 12-12 ATS with a 7.5-point winning margin and a negative 1.7-point differential versus the spread.

 

Betting Verdict
This is a mismatch of huge proportions on the NBA betting card in no uncertain terms and in all likelihood the Cavaliers will take the pivotal win tonight. However, in terms of spread betting it’s a bit of a tossup which team will cover. The Lakers have been underrated versus the spread only to come through for their backers, while the Cavaliers have been overrated versus the spread only to fall through for their backers. As it is, the Cavaliers are just 12-12 ATS as home favorites, serving up a 50% chance they’ll cover the hefty 15.5-point spread against the Lakers. In their last ten games, they’ve gone just 5-5 ATS. Meanwhile, the Lakers are riding a four-game covering streak despite a 2-2 SU record. For our NBA pick, we’re taking the Cavaliers to win but the Lakers to cover as the 15.5-point road underdogs. Luck to us!