Free NBA Picks: Bucks vs. Heat

Joe Freda

Tuesday, April 9, 2013 12:07 PM GMT

Free NBA picks for today's matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat. What have the NBA odds makers laid out for us, and where are we looking to place our sports picks?

The Miami Heat have seen the OVER collect at 5-2 in their last seven matchups, despite allowing a stingy 91.1 PPG. Tuesday’s NBA slate has Erik Spoelstra’s squad hosting the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been held to 85.8 PPG in their last four road spots with UNDER backers going 4-0.

Will the octane stay low in this spot for UNDER backers?  Which squad’s ‘total’ trend looks best to back?

[gameodds]5/224354/43/us[/gameodds]

Heat, James down 76ers

Miami logged its fourth win in five games with Saturday’s 106-87 victory as a seven-point home favorite over the Philadeliphia 76ers. The Heat held Philadelphia to 40.2 percent field shooting, while outscoring the 76ers in the fourth quarter, 29-11. 

Heat forward LeBron James put up 27 points, while adding five assists in 30 minutes of action. Miami’s Chris Andersen grabbed a season-high 15 boards off the bench, with starting center Chris Bosh unavailable due to a knee injury. 

The battle’s combined 193 points jumped above the ‘total’ of 189 ½, with the Heat draining 14-of-25 buckets from three-point land. Miami outrebounded the 76ers, 48-41, while outscoring them in paint points, 36-24.

Can anyone beat the Heat in a seven game playoffs series?

Bucks, Ellis hold off Raptors

Milwaukee ended a streak of two losses on the same night of action, notching a 100-83 win against the Toronto Raptors. The Bucks led by as many as 32 points, cashing as six-point home ‘chalk.’ 

Bucks guard Monta Ellis came away with team-highs of 26 points and nine assists, while logging six of his side’s 11 steals. Milwaukee’s Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova united for 17 boards, with Sanders adding six blocks. 

The lopsided affair’s 183 points plunged below the ‘total’ of 202 ½, with the Bucks holding Toronto to 36.1 percent field shooting. Milwaukee’s Brandon Jennings and Mike Dunleavy combined to hit 10-of-20 shots from the floor, including 4-of-8 beyond the arc.

Back the UNDER in Miami 

Due to injuries, the NBA odds have been slow to come out. While we still believe that bettors will be smart to look at the total for value, those looking to bet on the spread should follow SBR Odds for the most up to date betting lines from all of the top online sportsbooks.

Miami’s Chris Bosh remains “questionable” to return in Tuesday’s matchup, while mate Dwayne Wade remains “doubtful” to play. Both squads are playing the front end of a back-to-back spot, with the Heat headed to Washington and Milwaukee heading to meet the Orlando Magic. 

I am adding the UNDER here to Tuesday’s sports picks, looking for scoring to stay low as these squads go through the motions here.

Miami has held visiting foes to 89.7 PPG in its last nine home dates, with the UNDER going 3-2 in that span’s most recent five duels. Saturday’s win showed the Heat still have some rebounding depth even without Bosh in the lineup, which should keep Milwaukee’s chances for points to a minimum. 

Milwaukee has been held below 39 percent field shooting in three of its last four contests away from home. The Bucks have continued some long-standing inconsistency in finding the rims, with the UNDER going 20-8 in the team’s last 28 spots that came after a win of 10 points of more. 

The UNDER is 2-1 in this year’s three prior meetings between these rivals, with the sole OVER ticket needing overtime to collect. Look for UNDER backers to get the money here again, adding to a 7-2 mark for the wager in the last nine battles that Miami has hosted.

Free NBA Pick:  UNDER