Free NBA Picks for Betting the Dog & 'Under' in Lakers vs. Suns

Darin Zank

Monday, November 16, 2015 3:45 PM GMT

Phoenix owns eight victories in its last nine bouts with the Lakers, and a 7-2-1 mark against the NBA odds over the last 10 meetings. But can the Suns cover double-digits Monday night against LA?

Lakers-Suns Betting Odds
Most of Monday's NBA odds market opened Phoenix at -11, with a total of right around 207. In the early betting most shops then bumped the Suns to -11.5. Anyone thinking about backing the Lakers for the outright upset as one of their NBA picks here could get a price of +628 on the moneyline at Pinnacle.

 

The Match-Up
Phoenix (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) has won two games in a row, after drilling Denver Saturday night 105-81. The Suns burst out to a 14-point lead after one quarter, blew that up to 32 at the half, and breezed to the cover as seven-point home favorites. For the game, Phoenix only shot 44 percent from the floor, but hit 11 of 24 shots from 3-point land and held the Nuggets to just 35 percent shooting. Thursday night the Suns beat the Clippers 118-104, although they caught the Clippers without Chris Paul and JJ Redick.

Los Angeles (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS) just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 97-85 win over Detroit Sunday night. That game was tied into the fourth quarter, but old man Kobe sparked a 31-point final frame, as the Lakers won outright as four-point home dogs. On the night, LA only shot 41 percent from the floor, but held Detroit to just 37 percent shooting. In fact, the Lakers have held their last six opponents to a combined 40 percent FG shooting. That, combined with their own poor shooting, is probably why they've played six UNDERS in a row. Also, LA is 4-2 ATS over its last six games, and the two ATS losses came by a total of four points.

 

Lakers-Suns Recent History
Phoenix swept four games from LA last season, by margins of 20, six, nine and 15 points. The Suns also covered as favorites of 12, five and 10 points, and pushed at -6. Phoenix outshot the Lakers in those four games combined by a 50-45 percent margin. Also, the OVERS went 3-0-1 in last season's series, as the games averaged 219 total points against an average OVER/UNDER of 213. Finally, the Suns have beaten the Lakers eight times in a row at the place now called the Stick.

 

Lakers-Suns Totals Trends
Los Angeles is 7-3 on the UNDERS this season, as Lakers games have averaged 203 points.

Phoenix is 5-4 on the UNDERS, as Suns games have averaged 204 points.

 

Personnel Update
LA's No. 24, old and hobbled, played 36 minutes Sunday night; he'll probably sit Monday night. Also, Lakers C Roy Hibbert took a chop to the nose Sunday, although early reports indicate he'll play tonight. Meanwhile, Phoenix F Markieff Morris (13 PPG) missed Saturday night's game with a sore knee, but the Suns didn't seem to miss him too much.

 

Lakers-Suns Picks
We cashed in on the Lakers last Wednesday, getting eight points in a 101-99 loss at Orlando, and that also came on the back end of a back-to-back, without Kobe. Also, LA is certainly playing some better defense than it was at the outset of this season. We like the Lakers here, plus the points. Finally, in recognizing LA's new-found appreciation for defense, we're thinking UNDER.

 

Free NBA Picks: Lakers +11.5 at Pinnacle and UNDER 207 at 5Dimes