Free NBA Picks: Bet Timberwolves +7 Against Tired Thunder Squad

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, January 27, 2016 3:44 PM GMT

The Thunder wrap up a four-game road swing after defeating the Knicks, while the Timberwolves have been struggling all season. Let's review what the NBA odds makers are offering here.

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NBA Pick: Timberwolves +7
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

Oklahoma City Thunder (34-13 SU, 18-28-1 ATS)
Oklahoma City got back on track last night after suffering a stunning 116-106 loss to the Nets as 13½ point road chalk the night before. The Thunder rolled into Madison Square Garden last night to tip off against the Knicks with plenty of money on the visitors, spiking the point spread from 7½ to 9 as of game time. Whether it was sharp money, public money or a combination of both it didn’t matter as OKC won the game 128-122 in overtime but failed to cover the number for all those who backed them in their NBA picks.

It was the third blown cover in the Thunder’s last four outings yet the team won three of those four contests straight up. In other words, the NBA odds makers are hanging numbers on Oklahoma City that the team simply can’t overcome. That makes the chalk eaters go broke while all those who lean towards backing the home dogs are getting tremendous value and covering because of it. Kevin Durant cannot be held accountable in any of the team’s recent failures to win big as he drained a season-high 44 points and hauled in 14 rebounds en route to his team’s victory last night over the Knicks. Teammate and fellow All-Star Russell Westbrook once again played Robin to Durant’s Batman with 30 points, 10 assists and eight boards. Center Steven Adams was a surprise addition to the lineup as he was expected to miss last night’s contest with a sprained elbow.

Must Read: Seeking Betting Value in the Western Conference

Minnesota Timberwolves (14-32 SU, 19-26-1 ATS)
The T-Wolves have struggled all season as evidenced by their 14-32 record and are once again in the running for a top lottery pick in the draft. Yet Monday night they acquitted themselves fairly well despite falling 114-107 to the powerhouse Cleveland Cavaliers. Karl-Anthony Towns led Minnesota’s scoring attack with 26 points and 11 boards while Zach LaVine bucketed 21 and Andrew Wiggins chipped in 20 points of his own. Minnesota hung tough throughout the contest and outscored Cleveland 34-31 in the final frame getting a road cover as 13 ½ point underdogs.

The aging former superstar Kevin Garnett missed the game with a sore right knee as his role has morphed from role player to an on and off the court mentor for the young group of T-Wolves. Minnesota has covered the last two games despite being defeated in both and now head home to meet the Thunder before embarking on a four-game road swing that begins Friday night. Minnesota is averaging 99.2 PPG (22nd) and allowing 103.1 PPG (21st).

 

Betting Analysis
These clubs have met twice before this season with the Thunder crushing the Timberwolves 113-93 in Oklahoma City on January 15th but in their initial meeting they met at the Target Center three days prior and the Wolves hung tough in defeat dropping a 101-96 decision as 10½ point home dogs and getting the ATS cover. Oklahoma City has had their difficulties covering in Minnesota with a 3-7 ATS record over their last 10 games on the T-Wolves home court. In addition the Thunder has failed to cover the number in their last six road contests. They are a dismal 5-15 ATS on the road this season and 6-17 ATS when playing teams with a losing record like Minnesota.

Once you factor in the grind of playing an overtime game just last night in New York, hopping a plane and already getting a season-best effort from leading scorer and co-resident superstar Kevin Durant I believe the young, talented legs of the Timberwolves will be able to hang and bang with a team that has been a money burner on the road in terms of ATS covers.