No Masking It: Bucks Will Be Too Much For Wizards On Wednesday

Tuesday, February 5, 2019 7:08 PM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2019 7:08 PM UTC

Milwaukee easily dispatched Brooklyn on Monday and now they head back home to welcome the Swiss-cheese defense of Washington. Let's determine the best play for your NBA picks.

Jordan’s NBA picks record: 35-18

Washington (22-31 SU, 23-30 ATS) at Milwaukee (39-13 SU, 30-19-3 ATS)Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)Free NBA Pick: Bucks ATSBest Line Offered: BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3569527, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,999991,999996,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

The Milwaukee Bucks have lost just three games since January 1 as they extend their run into the Eastern Conference standings. One of those losses came to the Washington Wizards on January 11, and you can bet Milwaukee has not forgotten about that 113-106 setback.

Bucks’ Home-Court Advantage And Wizards’ Poor Road Defense

The Bucks are the only team that ranks inside the top five in offensive and defensive rating. The Warriors have accomplished this feat over the last couple of seasons, but their defense prior to the healthy debut of DeMarcus Cousins was below average to say the least.

That leaves the Bucks as the only team that can truly be labeled elite and complete. They bring it every night on offense and defense and this is especially true when they play in Milwaukee. Both their offensive and defensive ratings improve by two full points when they play at home, and only the Pacers have a better home defensive rating this season.

The Bucks have allowed only 101.8 points per 100 possessions at the new Fiserv Forum this season, and that could make life very difficult for the Wizards on Wednesday night.

The Wizards have been the tale of two teams when they play on the road compared to home. Their offense goes into the tank, averaging just 105.9 points per 100 possessions when they play away from home. Plus, the Washington defense is allowing nearly 115 points per 100 possessions on the road, which ranks 28th in the league.

Against a team like the Bucks, this could mean a very bad defensive effort from Washington. The Wizards have allowed an average of 133.5 points per game over their last two, and since January 24 they own a defensive rating of 116.4.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

The #Bucks are an absolute monster: Top five in offense, defense, 3-pointers made. Coach Bud is running excellent offense predicated on constant ball movement, motion and spacing. And #Giannis is simply otherworldly. Milwaukee has the best record in the league for good reason.

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) February 5, 2019
\n\n"}[/]

The Sharp Pick

I got Milwaukee-Brooklyn game completely wrong on the Nets’ side of things Monday night, but they also were unexpectedly missing Joe Harris and ultimately had an off night offensively. The Wizards should put up a little more effort, but to what extent can we trust their offense?

Without John Wall, and if Bradley Beal is having an off night, the Wizards are toast. Otto Porter has not been a reliable offensive weapon since his return from injury and that leaves some big holes in Washington's offense.

Once you take into account how good the Bucks are on defense and how much the Wizards have struggled both on defense and scoring on the road, it’s hard to see the Bucks not running away with this one like they did on Monday. The number on the NBA odds board is hefty, but lay the points and back the Bucks in your NBA picks.

Final score prediction: Bucks 124, Wizards 106

comment here