Free NBA Pick: Upset Alert in Raptors Money Line Over Heat

Charles Stark

Saturday, April 11, 2015 5:54 PM GMT

Saturday, Apr. 11, 2015 5:54 PM GMT

Even though they are off a back to back I am going to take the Toronto Raptors on the plus money line for the minor upset against the Heat.  Read more here and add them to your NBA Picks.

It matters
It is always nice to have games that matter on the slate towards the end of the year, and today we should have a good one.  NBA odds makers have come out with making Miami a -3 favorite. I am assuming this is mainly due to the fact that Toronto is off a back to back and perhaps because at face value this game is bigger to the Heat, I think though this game could go either way. On the year these teams have split, and the Heat are hanging on by a thread to make the playoffs. Right now Toronto is battling for the number three slot in the playoffs in which they would most likely face the Bucks, this seems to be a better scenario for them than playing the Wizards. When all is said and done I don’t think the Raptors are going into in this game with anything less than to play it like a playoff game (except to rest Kyle Lowry a bit). It will be interesting to see how the Heat will bounce back after a terrible second half against the Bulls.

 

Big win big momentum… and the opposite
With Lowry cleared to play the Raptors won a really tough game in Orlando with a big three from Lou Williams at the end of the game.  Lowry put up some good numbers with 10 points and 7 assists. They have to have him healthy for a strong playoff push. I have been pretty critical of Toronto’s lack of defense on the year, but there is no argument from me they can get it done on the offensive end. With the win over the Magic that makes them 6-4 in their last 10 games which is ok, but more importantly is that they got some wins without Lowry.  Miami has done the opposite going 3-7 in there last ten games, but what might be the dagger is the last game they just played at home. Up by 19 points at half they absolutely crumbled and Chicago came up big to shock them at home. To me this might be the sign that the Heat are done, although not officially. I won’t put a fork in them yet because they do have some veteran leadership on the team, unfortunately though I think the Raptors will come into this game with a lot of confidence and not be deterred by the fact this is a must win for the Heat. In fact, I think this will benefit Toronto more by just coming out, try to push tempo, and play within themselves.

Check Out These Two Plays to Go 'Over' & Cash In Tonight's Hoop Action

Stats to consider
With no days rest the Raptors are still a solid offensive force shooting 46.2% from the field and 37% from beyond the arc. Miami has been poor on the offensive end, recently in the last three games they shot 44% from the floor and are ranked the worst from beyond the arc at around 21%. Defensively Toronto has improved somewhat on their yearly average allowing around 45% shooting from the field in their last three games, Miami has been better allowing just below 42% in that time frame but those stats came against three mid to low offensive teams in the Pacers, Hornets, and Bulls (who shot horribly in the first half but had a lot of open looks). 

I think the Heat are done with the season and the Raptors are going to basically end their playoff hopes tonight. It should be a pretty good battle, but in the end I think the Raptors get it done. Good betting value on the plus money line and I suggest you take them in this spot as your NBA pick.

The NBA Pick:  Toronto plus money line at Pinnacle Sports

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