Put 'Under' In Your NBA Picks When Pacers Visit Lakers On Thursday

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 28, 2018 6:58 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 28, 2018 6:58 PM UTC

LeBron James and the Lakers are the worst NBA pick there is. The small-market Pacers have all the betting value for Thursday’s matchup – or do they? Let's check it out, and bet confidently with tips from SBRpicks.com.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Nov. 28: 6-6 ATS, 3-1 Totals

Indiana (13-8 SU, 11-10 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (11-9 SU, 7-13 ATS)Thursday, 10:30 p.m. ETFree NBA Pick: 'Under'Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Thank goodness for the NBA. It’s not easy squeezing value out of those NFL lines, but when it comes to the hardcourt, the path to riches is easy: Fade L.A. The Los Angeles Lakers have the worst ATS record in the league at 7-13 as we go to press. They’re one of the league’s most popular brand names, and they have LeBron James. You know we have to do it to them.

It helps when the Lakers are playing the exact opposite of themselves. The Indiana Pacers are the quintessential small-market team, and they don’t have any one superstar – although that could change, if and when people realize what’s going on in the Hoosier State. Good thing Thursday’s game at Staples Center isn’t part of this week’s TNT doubleheader. But does Indiana really belong in your NBA picks?

At A Medium Pace

The logic behind fading the Lakers is pretty obvious. But today, we have a chance to support that logic with some advanced stats, and it’s not looking so good for Indiana. On the very early lines on the NBA odds board, the Pacers opened as 5-point road dogs. However, FiveThirtyEight projects the Lakers as 7.5-point favorites, using their Elo-based formula. That’s not the betting edge we’re looking for – quite the opposite, actually.

What gives? Well, the Pacers have had some issues of their own lately, going 6-7 ATS in November. They’ve played an incredibly soft schedule, masking some of their issues, and All-Star SG Victor Oladipo (plus-3.1 BPM) is day-to-day with a sore right knee. He’s expected to miss Thursday’s matchup. Nertz.

To The Victor

The betting public tends to overreact when star players get injured, but again, these are the Pacers, and Oladipo isn’t revered nearly as much as King James (plus-7.3 BPM), who’s still playing at a very high level in his age 34 season. If anything, people aren’t giving Oladipo enough credit. With him out of the picture, the Lakers look like the right pick at this price – according to the projections.

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@TheStarters Any real NBA fan knew Vucevic, Sabonis, and Harrell would be in the top 10 in Player Efficiency Rating a quarter of the way through the season. 🤷🏼‍♂️👀 #TheStarters pic.twitter.com/kPPoWq5Z64

— Paul Kitchener (@kitchenerpaul) November 28, 2018
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But we’re not going there. The Pacers still have Domantas Sabonis (plus-6.6 BPM), who is absolutely tearing it up for Indiana in 24.6 minutes per game off the bench. And the Lakers are still unprofitable at 4-5 ATS since acquiring backup big man Tyson Chandler, after starting the year at 3-8 ATS. So we’re sticking with the "under," which cashed in for us last week against the Utah Jazz, and cashed in twice more after that to go 10-2 in the last dozen Lakers games. The Pacers run one of the slowest offenses in the league, and Oladipo (likely) won’t be involved, so dial it up, and may the sphere be with you.

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